Spillovers, Linkages, and Productivity Growth in the US Economy, 1958 to 2007
I speculate that technological spillover effects may have become more important over time as IT penetrated the U.S. economy. The rationale is that IT may speed up the process of knowledge transfer and make these knowledge spillovers more effective. Using US input-output tables for years 1958, 1967, 1977, 1987, 1997, and 2007, I compare my new results with Wolff and Nadiri (1993) covering years 1947-1977 and Wolff (1997) covering 1958- 1987. I estimate that the direct rate of return to R&D is now 22% and the indirect rate of return to R&D is 37%. The former is higher than in the previous studies. The indirect rate of return to R&D is now significant at the one percent level, in comparison to a 10 percent significance level in Wolff (1997). The newly estimated social rate of return to R&D is 59%, compared to 53% in Wolff (1997). In contrast to the earlier studies, the coefficients of R&D embodied in new investment are now statistically significant at the five percent level. Separate regressions on the 1958-1987 and 1987-2007 periods and the addition of successive periods to the sample also suggest a strengthening of R&D spillovers between the 1958-1987 and 1987-2007 periods. A decomposition of TFP growth also indicates a higher contribution from R&D spillovers in the later period. These results suggest a strengthening of the R&D spillover effect over time.
|Date of creation:||Mar 2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||published as Productivity Growth: Industries, Spillovers and Economic Performance [withThijs ten Raa], Edward Elgar Publishers, Cheltenham, UK, 2012.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.|
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Acharya, Ram C. & Keller, Wolfgang, 2008.
"Estimating the Productivity Selection and Technology Spillover Effects of Imports,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
6860, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Ram C. Acharya & Wolfgang Keller, 2008. "Estimating the Productivity Selection and Technology Spillover Effects of Imports," NBER Working Papers 14079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jeffrey I. Bernstein & M. Ishaq Nadiri, 1989.
"Research and Development and Intra-industry Spillovers: An Empirical Application of Dynamic Duality,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Oxford University Press, vol. 56(2), pages 249-267.
- Bernstein, Jeffrey I. & Nadiri, M. Ishaq, 1988. "Research and Development and Intraindustry Spillovers: An Empirical Application of Dynamic Duality," Working Papers 88-06, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Jeffrey I. Bernstein & M. Ishaq Nadiri, 1986. "Research and Development and Intraindustry Spillovers: An Empirical Application of Dynamic Duality," NBER Working Papers 2002, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Coe, D.T. & Helpman, E., 1993.
"International R&D Spillovers,"
5-93, Tel Aviv.
- Ornaghi, Carmine, 2006.
"Spillovers in product and process innovation: Evidence from manufacturing firms,"
International Journal of Industrial Organization,
Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 349-380, March.
- Ornaghi, Carmine, 2002. "Spillovers in product and process innovation: evidence from manufacturing firms," UC3M Working papers. Economics we023213, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
- Jansen, Pieter Kop & ten Raa, Thijs, 1990.
"The Choice of Model in the Construction of Input-Output Coefficients Matrices,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 31(1), pages 213-27, February.
- Ten Raa, M.H. & Jansen, P., 1989. "The choice of model in the construction of input-output coefficients matrices," Discussion Paper 1989-1, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Bartelsman, E.J. & Caballero, R.J. & Lyons, R.K., 1991.
"Short and Long Run Externalities,"
91-18, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
- Lychagin, Sergey & Pinkse, Joris & Slade, Margaret E. & Van Reenen, John, 2010.
"Spillovers in Space: Does Geography Matter?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
7928, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Sergey Lychagin & Joris Pinkse & Margaret E. Slade & John Van Reenen, 2010. "Spillovers in Space: Does Geography Matter?," CEP Discussion Papers dp0991, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Sergey Lychagin & Joris Pinkse & Margaret E. Slade & John Van Reenen, 2010. "Spillovers in Space: Does Geography Matter?," NBER Working Papers 16188, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Wolff, Edward N. & Ishaq Nadiri, M., 1993. "Spillover effects, linkage structure, and research and development," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 315-331, December.
- Edward Wolff, 1997.
"Spillovers, Linkages and Technical Change,"
Economic Systems Research,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 9-23.
- Madsen, Jakob B., 2007. "Technology spillover through trade and TFP convergence: 135 years of evidence for the OECD countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 464-480, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16864. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.