IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/16864.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Spillovers, Linkages, and Productivity Growth in the US Economy, 1958 to 2007

Author

Listed:
  • Edward N. Wolff

Abstract

I speculate that technological spillover effects may have become more important over time as IT penetrated the U.S. economy. The rationale is that IT may speed up the process of knowledge transfer and make these knowledge spillovers more effective. Using US input-output tables for years 1958, 1967, 1977, 1987, 1997, and 2007, I compare my new results with Wolff and Nadiri (1993) covering years 1947-1977 and Wolff (1997) covering 1958- 1987. I estimate that the direct rate of return to R&D is now 22% and the indirect rate of return to R&D is 37%. The former is higher than in the previous studies. The indirect rate of return to R&D is now significant at the one percent level, in comparison to a 10 percent significance level in Wolff (1997). The newly estimated social rate of return to R&D is 59%, compared to 53% in Wolff (1997). In contrast to the earlier studies, the coefficients of R&D embodied in new investment are now statistically significant at the five percent level. Separate regressions on the 1958-1987 and 1987-2007 periods and the addition of successive periods to the sample also suggest a strengthening of R&D spillovers between the 1958-1987 and 1987-2007 periods. A decomposition of TFP growth also indicates a higher contribution from R&D spillovers in the later period. These results suggest a strengthening of the R&D spillover effect over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Edward N. Wolff, 2011. "Spillovers, Linkages, and Productivity Growth in the US Economy, 1958 to 2007," NBER Working Papers 16864, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16864
    Note: PR
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w16864.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pieter Kop Jansen & Thijs ten Raa, 2009. "The Choice of Model in the Construction of Input–Output Coefficients Matrices," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Input–Output Economics: Theory And Applications Featuring Asian Economies, chapter 4, pages 47-66, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Jeffrey I. Bernstein & M. Ishaq Nadiri, 1989. "Research and Development and Intra-industry Spillovers: An Empirical Application of Dynamic Duality," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(2), pages 249-267.
    3. Coe, David T. & Helpman, Elhanan, 1995. "International R&D spillovers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 859-887, May.
    4. Eric J. Bartelsman & Ricardo J. Caballero & Richard K. Lyons, 1991. "Short and Long Run Externalities," NBER Working Papers 3810, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Madsen, Jakob B., 2007. "Technology spillover through trade and TFP convergence: 135 years of evidence for the OECD countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 464-480, July.
    6. Ornaghi, Carmine, 2006. "Spillovers in product and process innovation: Evidence from manufacturing firms," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 349-380, March.
    7. Sergey Lychagin & Joris Pinkse & Margaret E. Slade & John Van Reenen, 2016. "Spillovers in Space: Does Geography Matter?," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(2), pages 295-335, June.
    8. Wolff, Edward N. & Ishaq Nadiri, M., 1993. "Spillover effects, linkage structure, and research and development," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 315-331, December.
    9. Bart Verspagen, 1997. "Estimating international technology spillovers using technology flow matrices," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 133(2), pages 226-248, June.
    10. Edward Wolff, 1997. "Spillovers, Linkages and Technical Change," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 9-23.
    11. Acharya, Ram C. & Keller, Wolfgang, 2008. "Estimating the Productivity Selection and Technology Spillover Effects of Imports," CEPR Discussion Papers 6860, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Park, Walter G, 1995. "International R&D Spillovers and OECD Economic Growth," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 33(4), pages 571-591, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nicola Gennaioli & Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer, 2013. "Human Capital and Regional Development," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 128(1), pages 105-164.
    2. Czyżewski Andrzej & Grzelak Aleksander, 2018. "Application of the input-output model for structural analysis on the example of the agricultural sector in Poland," Management, Sciendo, vol. 22(2), pages 285-298, December.
    3. Francesco Bripi, 2019. "Business travels, multinational firms and international trade," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 523, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. G. Serrano-Domingo & B. Cabrer-Borrás, 2017. "Direct and indirect knowledge spillovers and industrial productivity," Industry and Innovation, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 165-189, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hall, Bronwyn H. & Mairesse, Jacques & Mohnen, Pierre, 2010. "Measuring the Returns to R&D," Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, in: Bronwyn H. Hall & Nathan Rosenberg (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1033-1082, Elsevier.
    2. G. Serrano-Domingo & B. Cabrer-Borrás, 2017. "Direct and indirect knowledge spillovers and industrial productivity," Industry and Innovation, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 165-189, February.
    3. Ugur, Mehmet & Trushin, Eshref & Solomon, Edna & Guidi, Francesco, 2016. "R&D and productivity in OECD firms and industries: A hierarchical meta-regression analysis," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(10), pages 2069-2086.
    4. Jan Bonenkamp & Martijn van de Ven, 2006. "A small stochastic model of a pension fund with endogenous saving," CPB Memorandum 168.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    5. Bas Straathof & Gert Jan Linders & Arjan Lejour & Jan Möhlmann, 2008. "The internal market and the Dutch economy: implications for trade and economic growth," CPB Document 168.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    6. Mitze, Timo & Naveed, Amjad & Ahmad, Nisar, 2016. "International, intersectoral, or unobservable? Measuring R&D spillovers under weak and strong cross-sectional dependence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 259-272.
    7. Roger Smeets & Albert de Vaal, 2011. "Knowledge diffusion from FDI and Intellectual Property Rights," CPB Discussion Paper 168.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    8. Sergey Lychagin & Joris Pinkse & Margaret E. Slade & John Van Reenen, 2016. "Spillovers in Space: Does Geography Matter?," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(2), pages 295-335, June.
    9. Keller, Wolfgang, 2002. "Trade and the Transmission of Technology," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 5-24, March.
    10. Coe, David T. & Helpman, Elhanan & Hoffmaister, Alexander W., 2009. "International R&D spillovers and institutions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 723-741, October.
    11. G. Medda & C. Piga, 2004. "R&S e spillover industriali: un'analisi sulle imprese italiane," Working Paper CRENoS 200406, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    12. Alfranca, Oscar & Huffman, Wallace E., 1999. "Private R&D Investments in Agriculture: The Role of Incentives and Institutions," ISU General Staff Papers 199912010800001333, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    13. Francesco Venturini & Ana Rincon-Aznar & Dr Michela Vecchi, 2013. "ICT as a general purpose technology: spillovers, absorptive capacity and productivity performance," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 416, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    14. Francesco Di Comite & D'Artis Kancs & Wouter Torfs, 2015. "Macroeconomic Modelling of R&D and Innovation Policies," JRC Working Papers JRC89558, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
    15. Pierre Koning & Karen Wiel, 2012. "School Responsiveness to Quality Rankings: An Empirical Analysis of Secondary Education in the Netherlands," De Economist, Springer, vol. 160(4), pages 339-355, December.
    16. Rosina Moreno & Enrique López-Bazo & Esther Vayá & Manuel Artís, 2004. "External Effects and Cost of Production," Advances in Spatial Science, in: Luc Anselin & Raymond J. G. M. Florax & Sergio J. Rey (ed.), Advances in Spatial Econometrics, chapter 14, pages 297-317, Springer.
    17. ten Raa, Thijs & Wolff, Edward N., 2000. "Engines of growth in the US economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 473-489, December.
    18. Martin Mellens & Herman Noordman & Johan Verbruggen, 2007. "Re-exports: international comparison and implications for performance indicators," CPB Document 149.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    19. Farhadi, Minoo, 2015. "Transport infrastructure and long-run economic growth in OECD countries," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 73-90.
    20. Luh, Yir-Hueih & Jiang, Wun-Ji & Huang, Szu-Chi, 2016. "Trade-related spillovers and industrial competitiveness: Exploring the linkages for OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 309-325.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16864. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.