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International Trade and Labor Income Risk in the United States

Author

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  • Pravin Krishna
  • Mine Zeynep Senses

Abstract

This paper studies empirically the links between international trade and labor income risk faced by workers in the United States. We use longitudinal data on workers to estimate time-varying individual income risk at the industry level. We then combine our estimates of persistent labor income risk with measures of exposure to international trade to analyze the relationship between trade and labor income risk. Importantly, by contrasting estimates from various sub-samples of workers, such as those who switched to a different industry (or sector) with those who remained in the same industry throughout the sample, we study the relative importance of the different channels through which international trade affects individual income risk. Finally, we use these estimates to conduct a welfare analysis evaluating the benefits or costs of trade through the income risk channel. We find import penetration to have a statistically significant association with labor income risk in the United States, with economically significant welfare effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Pravin Krishna & Mine Zeynep Senses, 2009. "International Trade and Labor Income Risk in the United States," NBER Working Papers 14992, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14992
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ann Harrison & John McLaren & Margaret McMillan, 2011. "Recent Perspectives on Trade and Inequality," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 261-289, September.
    2. Harrison, Ann & McLaren, John & McMillan, Margaret S., 2010. "Recent findings on trade and inequality:," IFPRI discussion papers 1047, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Jan Hogrefe & Yao Yao, 2016. "Offshoring and labor income risk: an empirical investigation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 1045-1063, May.
    4. Kurz, Christopher & Senses, Mine Z., 2016. "Importing, exporting, and firm-level employment volatility," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 160-175.
    5. Senses, Mine Zeynep, 2010. "The effects of offshoring on the elasticity of labor demand," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 89-98, May.
    6. David Hummels & Jakob R. Munch & Lars Skipper & Chong Xiang, 2012. "Offshoring, Transition, and Training: Evidence from Danish Matched Worker-Firm Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 424-428, May.
    7. Burgess, Robin & Donaldson, Dave, 2012. "Can openness to trade reduce income volatility? Evidence from colonial India's famine era," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 54255, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Hogrefe, Jan, 2012. "Führt Offshoring zu höherem Einkommensrisiko?," ZEW Wachstums- und Konjunkturanalysen, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research, vol. 15(2), pages 6-7.
    9. Sly, Nicholas, 2010. "Skill Acquisition, Incentive Contracts and Jobs: Labor Market Adjustment to Trade," MPRA Paper 25004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Hogrefe, Jan & Yao, Yao, 2012. "Offshoring and labor income risk," ZEW Discussion Papers 12-025, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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