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Attention, Demographics, and the Stock Market

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  • Stefano DellaVigna
  • Joshua M. Pollet

Abstract

Do investors pay enough attention to long-term fundamentals? We consider the case of demographic information. Cohort size fluctuations produce forecastable demand changes for age-sensitive sectors, such as toys, bicycles, beer, life insurance, and nursing homes. These demand changes are predictable once a specific cohort is born. We use lagged consumption and demographic data to forecast future consumption demand growth induced by changes in age structure. We find that demand forecasts predict profitability by industry. Moreover, forecasted demand changes 5 to 10 years in the future predict annual industry returns. One additional percentage point of annualized demand growth due to demographics predicts a 5 to 10 percentage point increase in annual abnormal industry stock returns. However, forecasted demand changes over shorter horizons do not predict stock returns. The predictability results are more substantial for industries with higher barriers to entry and with more pronounced age patterns in consumption. A trading strategy exploiting demographic information earns an annualized risk-adjusted return of 5 to 7 percent. We present a model of underreaction to information about the distant future that is consistent with the findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefano DellaVigna & Joshua M. Pollet, 2005. "Attention, Demographics, and the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 11211, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11211
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    Cited by:

    1. Hirshleifer, David & Lim, Seongyeon & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2004. "Disclosure to an Audience with Limited Attention," Working Paper Series 2004-21, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    2. Raj Chetty & Adam Looney & Kory Kroft, 2009. "Salience and Taxation: Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1145-1177, September.
    3. Peng, Lin & Xiong, Wei, 2006. "Investor attention, overconfidence and category learning," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 563-602, June.
    4. Kedar-Levy, Haim, 2006. "Can baby-boomers' retirement increase stock prices?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 284-299, May.
    5. Mary J. Benner, 2010. "Securities Analysts and Incumbent Response to Radical Technological Change: Evidence from Digital Photography and Internet Telephony," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 21(1), pages 42-62, February.
    6. Riccardo Ferretti & Andrea Cipollini & Francesco Pattarin, 2016. "Can an unglamorous non-event affect prices? The role of newspapers," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1142847-114, December.
    7. Stefano DellaVigna & Joshua M. Pollet, 2007. "Demographics and Industry Returns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(5), pages 1667-1702, December.
    8. David Hirshleifer & Sonya S. Lim & Siew Hong Teoh, 2011. "Limited Investor Attention and Stock Market Misreactions to Accounting Information," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 35-73.
    9. Riccardo Ferretti & Francesco Pattarin, 2008. "Is public information really public? The role of newspapers," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 0008, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    10. Ginger Zhe Jin & Michael Luca & Daniel Martin, 2022. "Complex Disclosure," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(5), pages 3236-3261, May.
    11. Xiaomeng Lu & Yali Lai & Yong Zhang, 2023. "Digital financial inclusion and investment diversification: Evidence from China," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(S2), pages 2781-2799, June.
    12. Lupia, Arthur & Grafstrom, Cassandra & Krupnikov, Yanna & Levine, Adam Seth & MacMillan, William & McGovern, Erin, 2007. "Loonies Under Your Bed: Misdirected Attention and the Diluted Value of Stock Market Reports," MPRA Paper 4912, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • D0 - Microeconomics - - General

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