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A multi-factor model for the valuation and risk managment of demand deposits

Listed author(s):
  • Hans Dewachter

    ()

    (Catholic University of Leuven, Center for Economic Studies
    Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam School of Management)

  • Marco Lyrio

    ()

    (University of Warwick, Warwick Business School, Finance Group)

  • Konstantijn Maes

    ()

    (National Bank of Belgium, Financial Stability Department)

How should we value and manage deposit accounts where deposits have a zero contractual maturity, but which, in practice, remain stable through time and are remunerated below market rates? Does the economic value of the deposit account differ from the face value and can we reliably measure it? To what extent is the economic value sensitive to yield curve changes? In this paper, we try to answer the above questions. The valuation is performed on yield curve, deposit rate and deposit balance data between December 1994 and June 2005 for a sample of Belgian bank retail savings deposits accounts. We find that the deposits premium component of Belgian savings deposits is economically and statistically significant, though sensitive to assumptions about servicing costs and outstanding balances average decay rates. We also find that deposit liability values depreciate significantly when market rates increase, thereby offsetting some of the value losses on the asset side. The hedging characteristics of deposit accounts depend primarily on the nature of the underlying interest rate shock (yield curve level versus slope shock) and on the average decay rate. We assess the reliability of the reported point estimates and also report corresponding duration estimates that results from a dynamic replicating portfolio model approach more commonly used by large international banks.

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File URL: https://www.nbb.be/doc/oc/repec/reswpp/wp83.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bank of Belgium in its series Working Paper Research with number 83.

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Length: 46 pages
Date of creation: May 2006
Handle: RePEc:nbb:reswpp:200605-2
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  1. Hordahl, Peter & Tristani, Oreste & Vestin, David, 2006. "A joint econometric model of macroeconomic and term-structure dynamics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 405-444.
  2. John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005. "A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
  3. Dewachter, Hans & Lyrio, Marco, 2006. "Macro Factors and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(1), pages 119-140, February.
  4. David Heath & Robert Jarrow & Andrew Morton, 2008. "Bond Pricing And The Term Structure Of Interest Rates: A New Methodology For Contingent Claims Valuation," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 13, pages 277-305 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
  5. de Jong, Frank & Wielhouwer, Jacco, 2003. "The Valuation and Hedging of Variable Rate Savings Accounts," ASTIN Bulletin: The Journal of the International Actuarial Association, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(02), pages 383-397, November.
  6. Konstantijn Maes & Konstantijn Maes, 2003. "Modeling the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Where Do We Stand?," International Economics Working Papers Series wpie008, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Centrum voor Economische Studiën, International Economics.
  7. Hutchison, David E, 1995. "Retail Bank Deposit Pricing: An Intertemporal Asset Pricing Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(1), pages 217-231, February.
  8. Frauendorfer, Karl & Schurle, Michael, 2003. "Management of non-maturing deposits by multistage stochastic programming," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 151(3), pages 602-616, December.
  9. Hannan, Timothy H & Berger, Allen N, 1991. "The Rigidity of Prices: Evidence from the Banking Industry," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 938-945, September.
  10. Marco Lyrio & Hans Dewachter & Konstantijn Maes, 2006. "A joint model for the term structure of interest rates and the macroeconomy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 439-462.
  11. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
  12. Kalkbrener, Michael & Willing, Jan, 2004. "Risk management of non-maturing liabilities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1547-1568, July.
  13. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika, 2003. "A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 745-787, May.
  14. Vasicek, Oldrich Alfonso, 1977. "Abstract: An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 627-627, November.
  15. de Jong, Frank, 2000. "Time Series and Cross-Section Information in Affine Term-Structure Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(3), pages 300-314, July.
  16. Jarrow, Robert A. & van Deventer, Donald R., 1998. "The arbitrage-free valuation and hedging of demand deposits and credit card loans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 249-272, March.
  17. Konstantijn Maes & Thierry Timmermans, 2005. "Measuring the interest rate risk of Belgian regulated savings deposits," Financial Stability Review, National Bank of Belgium, vol. 3(1), pages 137-151, June.
  18. Jefferson Duarte, 2004. "Evaluating an Alternative Risk Preference in Affine Term Structure Models," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(2), pages 379-404.
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