IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mtu/wpaper/03_06.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Carbon Dynamics and Land-Use Choices: Building a Regional-Scale Multidisciplinary Model

Author

Listed:
  • Suzi Kerr

    () (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research)

  • Shuguang Liu

    (EROS Data Center)

  • Alexander S. P. Pfaff

    (Columbia University)

  • R. Flint Hughes

    (USDA Forest Service)

Abstract

Policy enabling tropical forests to approach their potential contribution to global-climate-change mitigation requires forecasts of land use and carbon storage on a large scale over long periods. In this paper, we present an integrated modeling methodology that addresses these needs. We model the dynamics of the human land-use system and of C pools contained in each ecosystem, as well as their interactions. The model is national scale, and is currently applied in a preliminary way to Costa Rica using data spanning a period of over fifty years. It combines an ecological process model, parameterized using field and other data, with an economic model, estimated using historical data to ensure a close link to actual behavior. These two models are linked so that ecological conditions affect land-use choices and vice versa. The integrated model predicts land use and its consequences for C storage for policy scenarios. These predictions can be used to create baselines, reward sequestration, and estimate the value in both environmental and economic terms of including C sequestration in tropical forests as part of the efforts to mitigate global climate change. The model can also be used to assess the benefits from costly activities to increase accuracy and thus reduce errors and their societal costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Suzi Kerr & Shuguang Liu & Alexander S. P. Pfaff & R. Flint Hughes, 2003. "Carbon Dynamics and Land-Use Choices: Building a Regional-Scale Multidisciplinary Model," Working Papers 03_06, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:mtu:wpaper:03_06
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://motu-www.motu.org.nz/wpapers/03_06.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Suzi Kerr & Richard G. Newell, 2003. "Policy-Induced Technology Adoption: Evidence from the U.S. Lead Phasedown," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(3), pages 317-343, September.
    2. Masahisa Fujita & Paul Krugman & Anthony J. Venables, 2001. "The Spatial Economy: Cities, Regions, and International Trade," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262561476, January.
    3. Krugman, Paul, 1991. "Increasing Returns and Economic Geography," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 483-499, June.
    4. Robert N. Stavins, 1999. "The Costs of Carbon Sequestration: A Revealed-Preference Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 994-1009, September.
    5. Pfaff, Alexander S. P., 1999. "What Drives Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon?: Evidence from Satellite and Socioeconomic Data," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 26-43, January.
    6. Douglas J. Miller, 1999. "An Econometric Analysis of the Costs of Sequestering Carbon in Forests," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(4), pages 812-824.
    7. Brent Sohngen & Robert Mendelsohn & Roger Sedjo, 1999. "Forest Management, Conservation, and Global Timber Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(1), pages 1-13.
    8. Lakshminarayan, P. G. & Gassman, Philip W. & Bouzaher, Aziz & Izaurralde, R. Cesar, 1996. "Metamodeling Approach to Evaluate Agricultural Policy Impact on Soil Degradation in Western Canada (A)," Staff General Research Papers Archive 1091, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    9. Stavins, Robert N & Jaffe, Adam B, 1990. "Unintended Impacts of Public Investments on Private Decisions: The Depletion of Forested Wetlands," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 337-352, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Garth Holloway & Donald Lacombe & James P. LeSage, 2007. "Spatial Econometric Issues for Bio-Economic and Land-Use Modelling," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(3), pages 549-588, September.
    2. Grimes, Arthur, 2005. "Regional and industry cycles in Australasia: Implications for a common currency," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 380-397, June.
    3. Arthur Grimes, 2005. "Intra & Inter-Regional Industry Shocks: A New Metric with an Application to Australasian Currency Union," Macroeconomics 0509019, EconWPA.
    4. Upadhyay, T.P. & Solberg, Birger & Sankhayan, Prem L., 2006. "Use of models to analyse land-use changes, forest/soil degradation and carbon sequestration with special reference to Himalayan region: A review and analysis," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 349-371, December.
    5. Edwin van der Werf & Sonja Peterson, 2009. "Modeling linkages between climate policy and land use: an overview," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 40(5), pages 507-517, September.
    6. Thakur Upadhyay & Birger Solberg & Prem Sankhayan & Chander Shahi, 2013. "Land-use changes, forest/soil conditions and carbon sequestration dynamics: A bio-economic model at watershed level in Nepal," Journal of Bioeconomics, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 135-170, July.
    7. Michelle Poland & David C Maré, 2005. "Defining Geographic Communities," Urban/Regional 0509016, EconWPA.
    8. Suzi Kerr & Joanna Hendy & Shuguang Liu & Alexander S.P. Pfaff, 2004. "Tropical Forest Protection, Uncertainty, and the Environmental Integrity of Carbon Mitigation Policies," Others 0411001, EconWPA.
    9. Suzi Kerr, 2003. "Indigenous Forests and Forest Sink Policy in New Zealand," Working Papers 03_15, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    10. David C Maré, 2005. "Indirect Effects of Active Labour Market Policies," HEW 0509004, EconWPA.
    11. Lehtonen, Heikki & Peltola, Jukka & Sinkkonen, Marko, 2006. "Co-effects of climate policy and agricultural policy on regional agricultural viability in Finland," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 88(2-3), pages 472-493, June.
    12. Suzi Kerr & Leslie Lipper & Alexander S.P. Pfaff & Romina Cavatassi & Benjamin Davis & Joanna Hendy & Arturo Sanchez, 2004. "Will Buying Tropical Forest Carbon Benefit The Poor? Evidence from Costa Rica," Working Papers 04-20, Agricultural and Development Economics Division of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO - ESA).
    13. Adams, Thomas & Turner, James A., 2012. "An investigation into the effects of an emissions trading scheme on forest management and land use in New Zealand," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 78-90.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    carbon; sequestration; climate change; land use; modelling;

    JEL classification:

    • Q23 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Forestry
    • Q25 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Water
    • L71 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction - - - Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Hydrocarbon Fuels

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mtu:wpaper:03_06. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Maxine Watene) or (Joanne Lustig). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/motuenz.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.