Modelling Australian Domestic and International Inbound Travel: a Spatial-Temporal Approach
In this paper Australian domestic and international inbound travel are modelled by an anisotropic dynamic spatial lag panel Origin-Destination (OD) travel flow model. Spatial OD travel flow models have traditionally been applied in a single cross-sectional context, where the spatial structure is assumed to have reached its long run equilibrium and temporal dynamics are not explicitly considered. On the other hand, spatial effects are rarely accounted for in traditional tourism demand modelling. We attempt to address this dichotomy between spatial modelling and time series modelling in tourism research by using a spatial-temporal model. In particular, tourism behaviour is modelled as travel flows between regions. Temporal dependencies are accounted for via the inclusion of autoregressive components, while spatial autocorrelations are explicitly accounted for at both the origin and the destination. We allow the strength of spatial autocorrelation to exhibit seasonal variations, and we allow for the possibility of asymmetry between capital-city neighbours and non-capital-city neighbours. Significant spatial dynamics have been uncovered, which lead to some interesting policy implications.
|Date of creation:||24 Nov 2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: PO Box 11E, Monash University, Victoria 3800, Australia|
Phone: +61 3 99052489
Fax: +61 3 99055474
Web page: http://business.monash.edu/econometrics-and-business-statistics
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Web: http://business.monash.edu/econometrics-and-business-statistics Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- A. Porojan, 2001. "Trade Flows and Spatial Effects: The Gravity Model Revisited," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 265-280, July.
- Bolduc, Denis & Laferriere, Richard & Santarossa, Gino, 1992. "Spatial autoregressive error components in travel flow models," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 371-385, September.
- Bolduc, D. & Dagenais, M. & Gaudry, M.J.I., 1988.
"Spatially Autocorrected Errors In Origin-Destination Models A New Specification Applied To Aggregate Mode Choice,"
Cahiers de recherche
8811, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Bolduc, Denis & Dagenais, Marcel G. & Gaudry, Marc J. I., 1989. "Spatially autocorrelated errors in origin-destination models: A new specification applied to aggregate mode choice," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 361-372, October.
- Bolduc, D. & Dagenais, M.G. & Gaudry, M.J.I., 1988. "Spatially Autocorrected Errors in Origin-Destination Models a New Specification Applied to Aggregate Mode Choice," Cahiers de recherche 8811, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991.
"Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS program to replicate Arellano-Bond 1991 dynamic panel," Statistical Software Components RTZ00169, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Michael Beenstock & Daniel Felsenstein, 2007. "Spatial Vector Autoregressions," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 167-196.
- M Arellano & O Bover, 1990.
"Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-Components Models,"
CEP Discussion Papers
dp0007, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
- Hsiao, Cheng & Hashem Pesaran, M. & Kamil Tahmiscioglu, A., 2002.
"Maximum likelihood estimation of fixed effects dynamic panel data models covering short time periods,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 107-150, July.
- Hsaio, Cheng & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Tahmiscioglu, A. Kamil, 1998. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Fixed Effects Dynamic Panel Data Models Covering Short Time Periods," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9826, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Bhargava, Alok & Sargan, J D, 1983.
"Estimating Dynamic Random Effects Models from Panel Data Covering Short Time Periods,"
Econometric Society, vol. 51(6), pages 1635-59, November.
- Alok Bhargava & J. D. Sargan, 2006. "Estimating Dynamic Random Effects Models From Panel Data Covering Short Time Periods," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Econometrics, Statistics And Computational Approaches In Food And Health Sciences, chapter 1, pages 3-27 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
- Baltagi, Badi H. & Song, Seuck Heun & Koh, Won, 2003.
"Testing panel data regression models with spatial error correlation,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 123-150, November.
- Badi H. Baltagi & Seuck Heun Song & Won Koh, 2002. "Testing Panel Data Regression Models with Spatial Error Correlation," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 B6-4, International Conferences on Panel Data.
- George Athanasopoulos & Roman A. Ahmed & Rob J. Hyndman, 2007.
"Hierarchical forecasts for Australian domestic tourism,"
Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers
12/07, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, revised Nov 2007.
- Athanasopoulos, George & Ahmed, Roman A. & Hyndman, Rob J., 2009. "Hierarchical forecasts for Australian domestic tourism," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 146-166.
- George Athanasopoulos & Rob J. Hyndman, 2006. "Modelling and forecasting Australian domestic tourism," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 19/06, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- James P. LeSage & R. Kelley Pace, 2008. "Spatial Econometric Modeling Of Origin-Destination Flows," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(5), pages 941-967.
- Yu, Jihai & de Jong, Robert & Lee, Lung-fei, 2008. "Quasi-maximum likelihood estimators for spatial dynamic panel data with fixed effects when both n and T are large," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 118-134, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:msh:ebswps:2009-10. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dr Xibin Zhang)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.