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Firms’ expectations and price-setting: evidence from micro data

Author

Listed:
  • Lena Boneva

    (Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England)

  • James CLoyne

    (Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England)

  • Martin Weale

    (Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England)

  • Tomasz Wieladek

    (Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England)

Abstract

In many forward-looking macroeconomic models, such as the New Keynesian model, firms’ expectations about the future play a key role in determining outcomes today. We examine this hypothesis using a novel panel dataset on firms actual and expected price changes collected by the Confederation of British Industry. Our microeconometric approach overcomes the identification issues faced by previous empirical studies. The results suggest that firms’ expectations play a key role in their price-setting behaviour, with a coefficient on firm’s expectations consistent with the discount factor typically assumed in macroeconomic models.

Suggested Citation

  • Lena Boneva & James CLoyne & Martin Weale & Tomasz Wieladek, 2016. "Firms’ expectations and price-setting: evidence from micro data," Discussion Papers 48, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    • Handle: RePEc:mpc:wpaper:0048
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Frohm, Erik, 2020. "Price-setting and economic slack: Evidence from firm-level survey data," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    2. Maiko Koga & Koichi Yoshino & Tomoya Sakata, 2020. "Strategic complementarity and asymmetric price setting among firms," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Inflation dynamics in Asia and the Pacific, volume 111, pages 85-97, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Pedro Elosegui & Máximo Sangiácomo, 2024. "Firm's Price Expectations: An Empirical Analysis using BCRAs' Survey of Business Economic Perspectives," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(83), pages 97-116, May.
    4. Okan Akarsu & Emrehan Aktug & Huzeyfe Torun, 2025. "Inflation Expectations and Firms' Decisions in High Inflation: Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial," Working Papers 2512, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    5. Haruhiko Inatsugu & Tomiyuki Kitamura & Taichi Matsuda, 2019. "The Formation of Firms' Inflation Expectations: A Survey Data Analysis," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 19-E-15, Bank of Japan.
    6. Adriana Grasso & Tiziano Ropele, 2018. "Firms’ inflation expectations and investment plans," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1203, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Yosuke Uno & Saori Naganuma & Naoko Hara, 2018. "New Facts about Firms' Inflation Expectations: Simple Tests for a Sticky Information Model," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 18-E-14, Bank of Japan.
    8. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Tiziano Ropele, 2020. "Inflation Expectations and Firm Decisions: New Causal Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(1), pages 165-219.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C26 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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