IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bcr/wpaper/2022103.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Firm's Price Expectations: An Empirical Analysis using BCRAs' Survey of Business Economic Perspectives

Author

Listed:
  • Pedro Elosegui

    (Central Bank of Argentina)

  • Máximo Sangiácomo

    (Central Bank of Argentina)

Abstract

The Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) implements a monthly Survey of Business Economic Perspectives to capture the business climate and economic perspectives. The survey includes both qualitative and quantitative questions on past and expected change in different economic variables of the main companies in Argentina. This unique proprietary data is used to approximate the price setting behavior of the firms in the domestic markets. We postulate an econometric model where the firms’ dynamic on their expected domestic prices are based on (i) firm’s past and expected information (prices, input costs and inventories) and (ii) macroeconomic variables (economic activity, foreign exchange rate, interest rate and inflation rate). The results indicate the importance of input costs (domestic and imported) and the macroeconomic variables (especially the exchange rate and the inflation rate) in the expected price dynamics of the analyzed companies and are in line with the literature analyzing price setting behavior under macroeconomic uncertainty. Foreign exchange rate pass-through, markups on input prices and forward-looking behavior in price setting generate important challenges for the anti-inflationary monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Pedro Elosegui & Máximo Sangiácomo, 2022. "Firm's Price Expectations: An Empirical Analysis using BCRAs' Survey of Business Economic Perspectives," BCRA Working Paper Series 2022103, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:bcr:wpaper:2022103
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bcra.gob.ar/Institucional/DescargaPDF/DownloadPDF.aspx?Id=1058
    File Function: English version (versión en inglés)
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Boneva, Lena & CLoyne, James & Weale, Martin & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2016. "Firms’ expectations and price-setting: evidence from micro data," Discussion Papers 48, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    2. Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow, 2004. "Some Evidence on the Importance of Sticky Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(5), pages 947-985, October.
    3. Fabiani, S. & Druant, M. & Hernando, I. & Kwapil, C. & Landau, B. & Loupias, C. & Martins, F. & Mathä, T. & Sabbatini, R. & Stahl, H. & Stockman, A., 2005. "The Pricing Behaviour of Firms in the Euro Area: New Survey Evidence," Working papers 135, Banque de France.
    4. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson & Patrick Sun & Daniel Villar, 2018. "The Elusive Costs of Inflation: Price Dispersion during the U.S. Great Inflation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(4), pages 1933-1980.
    5. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Saten Kumar, 2018. "How Do Firms Form Their Expectations? New Survey Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(9), pages 2671-2713, September.
    6. Serafín Frache & Rodrigo Lluberas, 2017. "New information and inflation expectations among firms," Documentos de trabajo 2017013, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    7. Silvia Fabiani & Martine Druant & Ignacio Hernando & Claudia Kwapil & Bettina Landau & Claire Loupias & Fernando Martins & Thomas Mathä & Roberto Sabbatini & Harald Stahl & Ad Stokman, 2006. "What Firms' Surveys Tell Us about Price-Setting Behavior in the Euro Area," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(3), September.
    8. Fernando Alvarez & Martin Beraja & Martín Gonzalez-Rozada & Pablo Andrés Neumeyer, 2019. "From Hyperinflation to Stable Prices: Argentina’s Evidence on Menu Cost Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(1), pages 451-505.
    9. Ariel Dvoskin & Germán David Feldman & Guido Ianni, 2020. "New‐structuralist exchange‐rate policy and the pattern of specialization in Latin American countries," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(1), pages 22-48, February.
    10. Anderson, Gareth & Maule, Becky, 2014. "Assessing the risk to inflation from inflation expectations," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 54(2), pages 148-162.
    11. Fabiani, Silvia & Gattulli, Angela & Sabbatini, Roberto, 2004. "The pricing behaviour of Italian firms: new survey evidence on price stickiness," Working Paper Series 333, European Central Bank.
    12. Alan S. Blinder, 1994. "On Sticky Prices: Academic Theories Meet the Real World," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 117-154, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Simon Richards & Matthieu Verstraete, 2016. "Understanding Firms' Inflation Expectations Using the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey," Staff Working Papers 16-7, Bank of Canada.
    14. Arnildo da Silva Correa & Myrian Beatriz S. Petrassi & Rafael Santos, 2016. "Price-Setting Behavior in Brazil: survey evidence," Working Papers Series 422, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    15. Jeremy B. Rudd, 2021. "Why Do We Think That Inflation Expectations Matter for Inflation? (And Should We?)," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-062, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2008. "Five Facts about Prices: A Reevaluation of Menu Cost Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(4), pages 1415-1464.
    17. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Elosegui Pedro Luis & Sangiacomo Maximo, 2023. "Firm’s Price Expectations: An Empirical Analysis using BCRAs’ Survey of Business Economic Perspectives," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4650, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    2. Martha Misas A. & Enrique López E. & Juan Carlos Parra A., 2013. "La formación de precios en las empresas colombianas: evidencia a partir de una encuesta directa," Investigación Conjunta-Joint Research, in: Laura Inés D'Amato & Enrique López Enciso & María Teresa Ramírez Giraldo (ed.), Dinámica inflacionaria, persistencia y formación de precios y salarios, edition 1, chapter 11, pages 273-348, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.
    3. Martha Misas A. & Enrique López E. & Juan Carlos Parra A., 2013. "Price Formation in Colombian Firms: Evidence Gathered from a Direct Survey," Investigación Conjunta-Joint Research, in: Laura Inés D'Amato & Enrique López Enciso & María Teresa Ramírez Giraldo (ed.), Inflationary Dynamics, Persistence, and Prices and Wages Formation, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 11, pages 251-321, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.
    4. Patrick Lünnemann & Thomas Y. Mathä, 2010. "Consumer price behaviour: evidence from Luxembourg micro data," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(2-3), pages 177-192.
    5. Laura Inés D'Amato & Enrique López Enciso & María Teresa Ramírez Giraldo (ed.), 2013. "Inflationary Dynamics, Persistence, and Prices and Wages Formation," Investigación Conjunta-Joint Research, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, edition 1, volume 1, number 2en, December.
    6. Consolo, Agostino & Koester, Gerrit & Nickel, Christiane & Porqueddu, Mario & Smets, Frank, 2021. "The need for an inflation buffer in the ECB’s price stability objective – the role of nominal rigidities and inflation differentials," Occasional Paper Series 279, European Central Bank.
    7. Klenow, Peter J. & Malin, Benjamin A., 2010. "Microeconomic Evidence on Price-Setting," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 6, pages 231-284, Elsevier.
    8. Crucini, Mario J. & Shintani, Mototsugu & Tsuruga, Takayuki, 2010. "Accounting for persistence and volatility of good-level real exchange rates: The role of sticky information," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 48-60, May.
    9. Luis J. Álvarez & Emmanuel Dhyne & Marco Hoeberichts & Claudia Kwapil & Hervé Le Bihan & Patrick Lünnemann & Fernando Martins & Roberto Sabbatini & Harald Stahl & Philip Vermeulen & Jouko Vilmunen, 2006. "Sticky Prices in the Euro Area: A Summary of New Micro-Evidence," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(2-3), pages 575-584, 04-05.
    10. Slanicay Martin, 2014. "Some Notes on Historical, Theoretical, and Empirical Background of DSGE Models," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 14(2), pages 1-20, June.
    11. Caballero, Ricardo J. & Engel, Eduardo M.R.A., 2007. "Price stickiness in Ss models: New interpretations of old results," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(Supplemen), pages 100-121, September.
    12. Dhyne, Emmanuel & Fuss, Catherine & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Sevestre, Patrick, 2011. "Lumpy Price Adjustments: A Microeconometric Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(4), pages 529-540.
    13. Hong, Gee Hee & Klepacz, Matthew & Pasten, Ernesto & Schoenle, Raphael, 2023. "The real effects of monetary shocks: Evidence from micro pricing moments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 1-20.
    14. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2011. "Strategic Interaction among Heterogeneous Price-Setters in an Estimated DSGE Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(3), pages 920-940, August.
    15. Saygın ŞAHİNÖZ & Bedri̇ye SARAÇOĞLU, 2008. "Price‐Setting Behavior In Turkish Industries: Evidence From Survey Data," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 46(4), pages 363-385, December.
    16. Hofstetter, Marc, 2010. "Sticky prices and moderate inflation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 535-546, March.
    17. Daniel Kaufmann, 2009. "Price-Setting Behaviour in Switzerland: Evidence from CPI Micro Data," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 145(III), pages 293-349, September.
    18. Silvia Fabiani & Martine Druant & Ignacio Hernando & Claudia Kwapil & Bettina Landau & Claire Loupias & Fernando Martins & Thomas Mathä & Roberto Sabbatini & Harald Stahl & Ad Stokman, 2006. "What Firms' Surveys Tell Us about Price-Setting Behavior in the Euro Area," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(3), September.
    19. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick, 2021. "State-dependent pricing turns money into a two-edged sword: A new role for monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    20. Saygın Şahinöz & Bedriye Saraçoğlu, 2011. "How do firms adjust their prices in Turkey? Micro-level evidence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 601-621, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    survey data; price setting; firms expectations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • D40 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bcr:wpaper:2022103. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Federico Grillo (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bcraaar.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.