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The role of demographic variables in explaining financial returns in Italy

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  • Marianna Brunetti
  • Costanza Torricelli

Abstract

This paper contributes to the ongoing debate on the relationship between asset returns and age-structure by investigating the case of Italy, which is experiencing one of the most pronounced ageing in the world. To this end, time-series regressions are run, in which real returns on different financial assets (stocks, long- and short-term government bonds) are used as dependent variables. The dataset contains annual observations spanning over the period 1958-2004. First, as in Poterba (2001, 2004) only demographic variables are used as explanatory ones. Then, following Davis and Li (2003) the regression specifications are completed with a set of financial variables which have finance-theoretical underpinnings. Results point towards a major effect of demographic dynamics on financial asset returns which appear significantly higher in magnitude than what Poterba (2001, 2004) and Davis and Li (2003) report for US, especially in the stock market.

Suggested Citation

  • Marianna Brunetti & Costanza Torricelli, 2007. "The role of demographic variables in explaining financial returns in Italy," Heterogeneity and monetary policy 0701, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia Politica.
    • Handle: RePEc:mod:modena:0701
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    10. Bellante, Don & Green, Carole A., 2004. "Relative risk aversion among the elderly," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 269-281.
    11. Marianna Brunetti & Costanza Torricelli, 2007. "The Effect of Population Ageing on Household Portfolio Choices in Italy," Heterogeneity and monetary policy 0702, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia Politica.
    12. James M. Poterba, 2001. "Demographic Structure And Asset Returns," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 565-584, November.
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    16. Marianna Brunetti & Costanza Torricelli, 2009. "Economic activity and recession probabilities: information content and predictive power of the term spread in Italy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(18), pages 2309-2322.
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    Cited by:

    1. Manuel Ammann & Rachel Berchtold & Ralf Seiz, 2011. "Demographic Change and Pharmaceuticals' Stock Returns," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 17(4), pages 726-754, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    population ageing; financial returns; stocks; bonds;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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