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Sources of Unemployment Fluctuations in the USA and in the Euro Area in the Last Decade

  • Antonio Ribba

    ()

The aim of this paper is to investigate the role played by macroeconomic shocks in shaping unemployment fluctuations, both in the USA and in the Euro area, in the recent, European Monetary Union, period. The task is accomplished by estimating a VAR model which jointly considers US and European variables. We identify the structural disturbances through sign restrictions on the dynamic response of variables. Our results show that there are real effects of monetary policy shocks and of non-monetary policy, financial shocks in both economic areas. Moreover, a significant role is also exerted by business cycle, adverse aggregate demand shocks. We provide an estimation of the relative importance of the identified structural shocks in explaining the variability of inflation and unemployment. Not surprisingly, in the last decade an important role has been played by financial shocks.

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Paper provided by University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi" in its series Department of Economics with number 0627.

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Length: pages 28
Date of creation: Apr 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mod:depeco:0627
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.economia.unimore.it/

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  11. Antonio Ribba, 2012. "The federal funds rate and the conduction of the international orchestra," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 086, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
  12. Ben S. Bernanke & Alan S. Blinder, 1989. "The federal funds rate and the channels of monetary transmission," Working Papers 89-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
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  16. Graziella Bertocchi & Andrea Guerzoni, 2010. "Growth, History, or Institutions? What Explains State Fragility in Sub-Saharan Africa," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 044, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
  17. Antonio Ribba, 2006. "The joint dynamics of inflation, unemployment and interest rate in the United States since 1980," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 497-511, June.
  18. Scholl, Almuth & Uhlig, Harald, 2008. "New evidence on the puzzles: Results from agnostic identification on monetary policy and exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 1-13, September.
  19. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June.
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  22. Giuseppe Marotta, 1997. "Does trade credit redistribution thwart monetary policy? Evidence from Italy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(12), pages 1619-1629.
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