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Sources of Unemployment Fluctuations in the USA and in the Euro Area in the Last Decade

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  • Antonio Ribba

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to investigate the role played by macroeconomic shocks in shaping unemployment fluctuations, both in the USA and in the Euro area, in the recent, European Monetary Union, period. The task is accomplished by estimating a VAR model which jointly considers US and European variables. We identify the structural disturbances through sign restrictions on the dynamic response of variables. Our results show that there are real effects of monetary policy shocks and of non-monetary policy, financial shocks in both economic areas. Moreover, a significant role is also exerted by business cycle, adverse aggregate demand shocks. We provide an estimation of the relative importance of the identified structural shocks in explaining the variability of inflation and unemployment. Not surprisingly, in the last decade an important role has been played by financial shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonio Ribba, 2010. "Sources of Unemployment Fluctuations in the USA and in the Euro Area in the Last Decade," Department of Economics 0627, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    • Handle: RePEc:mod:depeco:0627
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Structural VARs; Euro Area; Monetary Policy; Unemployment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General

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