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A Structural Empirical Analysis of Retail Banking Competition: the Case of Hungary


  • József Molnár

    () (Bank of Finland)

  • Márton Nagy

    () (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

  • Csilla Horváth

    () (Radboud University Nijmegen, The Netherlands)


In this paper we analyze the degree of competition in the Hungarian household credit and deposit markets. We estimate discrete-choice, multinomial logit deposit service and loan demand functions for each bank and calculate the corresponding price elasticities. Two models of the banking industry are considered: a static, differentiated product Nash-Bertrand oligopoly (as non-collusive benchmark) and a cartel. With estimated marginal costs and observed interest rates we calculate the price-cost margins and compare these to the theoretically implied ones. We find that in our sample period the competition in the Hungarian banking sector is low, i.e. price-cost margins are high.

Suggested Citation

  • József Molnár & Márton Nagy & Csilla Horváth, 2007. "A Structural Empirical Analysis of Retail Banking Competition: the Case of Hungary," MNB Working Papers 2007/1, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
  • Handle: RePEc:mnb:wpaper:2007/1

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ho, Chun-Yu, 2012. "Market structure, welfare, and banking reform in China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 291-313.
    2. Judit Temesváry, 2014. "Explaining the Differences between Local Currency versus FX-denominated Loans and Deposits in the Central-Eastern European Economies," IEHAS Discussion Papers 1405, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
    3. Várhegyi, Éva, 2010. "A válság hatása a magyarországi bankversenyre
      [The effect of the crisis on bank competition in Hungary]
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(10), pages 825-846.
    4. M. Girotti & R. Meade, 2017. "U.S. Savings Banks' Demutualization and Depositor Welfare," Working papers 639, Banque de France.
    5. Molnar, Jozsef & Violi, Roberto & Zhou, Xiaolan, 2013. "Multimarket contact in Italian retail banking: Competition and welfare," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 368-381.
    6. Temesvary, Judit, 2015. "Dynamic branching and interest rate competition of commercial banks: Evidence from Hungary," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 98-110.
    7. Chun‐Yu Ho, 2015. "Switching Cost And Deposit Demand In China," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56, pages 723-749, August.
    8. Kv, Bhanu Murthy & Deb, Ashis Taru, 2008. "Theoretical Framework Of Competition As Applied To Banking Industry," MPRA Paper 7465, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Szabolcs Szikszai & Tamás Badics & Csilla Raffai & Zsolt Stenger & András Tóthmihály, 2013. "Studies in Financial Systems No 8 Hungary," FESSUD studies fstudy08, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.
    10. Chun-Yu Ho, 2010. "Deregulation, competition and consumer welfare in a banking market: evidence from Hong Kong," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 37(1), pages 70-97, February.
    11. Király, Júlia & Nagy, Márton & Banai, Ádám, 2010. "Az aranykor vége Magyarországon. "Külföldi" és "lokális" bankok - válság előtt és válság után
      [End of the golden age in Hungary. "Foreign" and "local" banks
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(2), pages 105-131.

    More about this item


    Demand; discrete choice; product differentiation; banking; market power.;

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets

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