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Public expenditure and growth volatility: do "globalisation" and institutions matter?


  • Fabrizio Carmignani

    (United Nations Economic Commission for Africa¤)

  • Emilio Colombo

    () (Department of Economics, University of Milan-Bicocca)

  • Patrizio Tirelli

    () (Department of Economics, University of Milan-Bicocca)


We revisit the empirical relationship between output volatility and government expenditure in a model where the two are jointly deter- mined. The key regressors in our model are trade and ¯nancial integra- tion indicators, institutional variables, including central bank indepen- dence, and a measure of de facto exchange rate °exibility. Our ¯ndings consistently signal that government discretion has destabilising e®ects on growth volatility. We con¯rm that government size increases with trade integration, but this has adverse e®ects because public spending is positively related to growth volatility. Institutions that increase policy- makers accountability limit the level of public expenditure and volatility. In this regard, our results support the view that stronger institutions increase policy efficiency.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabrizio Carmignani & Emilio Colombo & Patrizio Tirelli, 2007. "Public expenditure and growth volatility: do "globalisation" and institutions matter?," Working Papers 116, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised 2007.
  • Handle: RePEc:mib:wpaper:116

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2006. "What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 163-192, October.
    2. Atish R. Ghosh & Anne-Marie Gulde & Holger C. Wolf, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Choices and Consequences," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262072408, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nabil ALIMI, 2016. "The Effect Of Economic Freedom On Business Cycle Volatility: Case Of Developing Countries," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 43, pages 139-158.

    More about this item


    Output volatility; government expenditure; trade openness; financial openness; central bank independence; political institutions;

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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