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Stability and Growth Pact: An Index to Trigger an Early Warning Earlier?

  • Thierry Warin

    ()

This paper addresses the question of a technical change in one the components of the Stability and Grown Pact (SGP). Indeed, the SGP is composed of (1) a political commitment, (2) a preventive element, and (3) a dissuasive element, and an improvement of the SGP efficacy can come from any of these three components. In this paper the author proposes a new early warning procedure, part of the preventive element. The ideal situation would be for the European Commission to be able to identify countries at risk as soon as they vote their national budgets. Although this is not possible, as the measures of the deficit are based on GDP forecasts, the conclusion this paper makes is that the EC should avoid relying on GDP forecasts by calculating a reference index.

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File URL: http://www.middlebury.edu/services/econ/repec/mdl/ancoec/0502.pdf
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Paper provided by Middlebury College, Department of Economics in its series Middlebury College Working Paper Series with number 0502.

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Length: 14 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mdl:mdlpap:0502
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  1. Leith, Campbell & Wren-Lewis, Simon, 2006. "Compatibility between monetary and fiscal policy under EMU," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(6), pages 1529-1556, August.
  2. Beetsma Roel M.W.J., 1996. "The Interaction of Fiscal and Monetary Policy in a Monetary Union: Balancing Credibility and Flexibility," Research Memorandum 005, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  3. Perotti, Roberto & Strauch, Rolf & von Hagen, Jürgen, 1997. "Sustainability of Public Finances," CEPR Discussion Papers 1781, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Thierry Warin & Lindsay Wolff, 2005. "EuropeÕs Deficit Free Riders: A Panel Data Analysis," European Political Economy Review, European Political Economy Infrastructure Consortium, vol. 3(Spring), pages 5-17.
  5. Otmar Issing, 2002. "On Macroeconomic Policy Co-ordination in EMU," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(2), pages 345-358, 06.
  6. Joao L.M. Amador, 2000. "Fiscal Policy And Budget Deficit Stability In A Continuous Time Stochastic Economy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 27, Society for Computational Economics.
  7. Dixit, Avinash, 2001. "Games of monetary and fiscal interactions in the EMU," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 589-613, May.
  8. Bohn, Henning, 1995. "The Sustainability of Budget Deficits in a Stochastic Economy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(1), pages 257-71, February.
  9. Marco Buti & Gabriele Giudice, 2002. "Maastricht's Fiscal Rules at Ten: An Assessment," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(5), pages 823-848, December.
  10. W. Bolt, 1999. "Fiscal Restraints, ECB Credibility and the Stability Pact:A Game-Theoretic Perspective," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 38, Netherlands Central Bank.
  11. Dixit, Avinash & Lambertini, Luisa, 2001. "Monetary-fiscal policy interactions and commitment versus discretion in a monetary union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 977-987, May.
  12. Thierry Warin, 2004. "Should Europe Get Rid of the Stability and Growth Pact?," Middlebury College Working Paper Series 0415, Middlebury College, Department of Economics.
  13. Lars Jonung & Martin Larch, 2006. "Improving fiscal policy in the EU: the case for independent forecasts," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 21(47), pages 491-534, 07.
  14. Uhlig, Harald, 2002. "One Money, but Many Fiscal Policies in Europe: What Are the Consequences?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3296, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Nielsen, Soren Bo, 1992. "A note on the sustainability of primary budget deficits," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 745-754.
  16. Fourçans André & Warin Thierry & Evans John T. & Hens Luc & Saenen Bert & Abid Fathi & Mikhail Azmi D. & Salehizadeh Mehdi, 2000. "Global Economy Quarterly, Issue 3," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 1(3), pages 1-109, December.
  17. Vranceanu, Radu & Warin, Thierry, 2001. "EMU: Optimal Fiscal Strategy and the Punishment Effectiveness," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 494-504, August.
  18. Francesco P. Mongelli, 1996. "The Effects of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU)on National Fiscal Sustainability," IMF Working Papers 96/72, International Monetary Fund.
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