IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/man/sespap/2103.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Crime in the Era of COVID-19: Evidence from England

Author

Listed:
  • Kyriakos C. Neanidis
  • Maria Paola Rana

Abstract

The rapid spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and the prescribed countermeasures of restrictions to mobility and social distancing are disrupting economic activity around the world. This applies to legal economic activity but also to criminal behavior and illegal activity. In this study, we investigate the effects of COVID-19-induced lockdowns on recorded crime in England. The enforcement of lockdowns in the country at both the national and local levels, temporally and spatially, allows unveiling the impact on criminal activities by type of shutdown policy. We use official crime data across the universe of local authorities dating back to May 2013 for all recorded crime categories. We find that (1) National lockdowns decrease all types of criminal behavior, except for anti-social behavior, drug offences and crimes against public order which are recording increases. (2) Relaxing national lockdown restrictions attenuates the initial crime effects of strict lockdowns across all crimes. (3) Local lockdowns affect fewer crime categories, limited to increasing anti-social behavior and weapons possession offences and decreasing bicycle theft and other theft violations, with findings being driven by late-entry areas of such policies. (4) A change in the local lockdown scheme implemented by the government in October 2020 does not have a markedly dissimilar effect on criminal activity compared to the earlier scheme. (5) Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that government-mandated lockdowns reduced the economic costs of crime by approximately £4.3 billion for the country as a whole (in 2020 British pounds).

Suggested Citation

  • Kyriakos C. Neanidis & Maria Paola Rana, 2021. "Crime in the Era of COVID-19: Evidence from England," Economics Discussion Paper Series 2103, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    • Handle: RePEc:man:sespap:2103
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hummedia.manchester.ac.uk/schools/soss/economics/discussionpapers/EDP-2103.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Leslie, Emily & Wilson, Riley, 2020. "Sheltering in place and domestic violence: Evidence from calls for service during COVID-19," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    2. Carola Binder, 2020. "Coronavirus Fears and Macroeconomic Expectations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 721-730, October.
    3. Gary S. Becker, 1974. "Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach," NBER Chapters, in: Essays in the Economics of Crime and Punishment, pages 1-54, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Saravana Ravindran & Manisha Shah, 2020. "Unintended Consequences of Lockdowns: COVID-19 and the Shadow Pandemic," NBER Working Papers 27562, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Amalia R. Miller & Carmit Segal & Melissa K. Spencer, 2024. "Effects of the COVID‐19 pandemic on domestic violence in Los Angeles," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 91(361), pages 163-187, January.
    6. Andrew Goodman-Bacon, 2018. "Difference-in-Differences with Variation in Treatment Timing," NBER Working Papers 25018, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Mario J. Crucini & Oscar O'Flaherty, 2020. "Stay-at-Home Orders in a Fiscal Union," NBER Working Papers 28182, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Agüero, Jorge M., 2021. "COVID-19 and the rise of intimate partner violence," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    9. Lindsey Rose Bullinger & Jillian B. Carr & Analisa Packham, 2020. "COVID-19 and Crime: Effects of Stay-at-Home Orders on Domestic Violence," NBER Working Papers 27667, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Abrams, David S., 2021. "COVID and crime: An early empirical look," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    11. Gian Maria Campedelli & Serena Favarin & Alberto Aziani & Alex R. Piquero, 2020. "Disentangling Community-level Changes in Crime Trends During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Chicago," Papers 2011.05658, arXiv.org.
    12. Hunt Allcott & Levi Boxell & Jacob C. Conway & Billy A. Ferguson & Matthew Gentzkow & Benjamin Goldman, 2020. "What Explains Temporal and Geographic Variation in the Early US Coronavirus Pandemic?," NBER Working Papers 27965, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Kong, Edward & Prinz, Daniel, 2020. "Disentangling policy effects using proxy data: Which shutdown policies affected unemployment during the COVID-19 pandemic?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    14. Arenas-Arroyo, Esther & Fernandez-Kranz, Daniel & Nollenberger, Natalia, 2021. "Intimate partner violence under forced cohabitation and economic stress: Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    15. Tom Kirchmaier & Carmen Villa-Llera, 2020. "Covid-19 and changing crime trends in England and Wales," CEP Covid-19 Analyses cepcovid-19-013, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    16. Callaway, Brantly & Sant’Anna, Pedro H.C., 2021. "Difference-in-Differences with multiple time periods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 200-230.
    17. Santiago Perez-Vincent & Enrique Carreras & María Amelia Gibbons & Tomás E. Murphy & Martín Rossi, 2020. "COVID-19 Lockdowns and Domestic Violence: Evidence from Two Studies in Argentina," Working Papers 143, Universidad de San Andres, Departamento de Economia, revised Jul 2020.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Carlos Díaz & Sebastian Fossati & Nicolás Trajtenberg, 2022. "Stay at home if you can: COVID‐19 stay‐at‐home guidelines and local crime," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(4), pages 1067-1113, December.
    2. Shubhangi Agrawal & Tom Kirchmaier & Carmen Villa-Llera, 2022. "Covid-19 and local crime rates in England and Wales - two years into the pandemic," CEP Covid-19 Analyses cepcovid-19-027, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    3. Mouratidis, Kostas, 2021. "How COVID-19 reshaped quality of life in cities: A synthesis and implications for urban planning," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    4. Eric Halford, 2022. "An Exploration of the Impact of COVID-19 on Police Demand, Capacity and Capability," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-24, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Berniell, Inés & Facchini, Gabriel, 2021. "COVID-19 lockdown and domestic violence: Evidence from internet-search behavior in 11 countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    2. Sonia Bhalotra & Emilia Brito & Damian Clarke & Pilar Larroulet & Francisco J. Pino, 2021. "Dynamic impacts of lockdown on domestic violence: Evidence from multiple policy shifts in Chile," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2021-189, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Mario J. Crucini & Oscar O'Flaherty, 2020. "Stay-at-Home Orders in a Fiscal Union," NBER Working Papers 28182, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Hugues Champeaux & Francesca Marchetta, 2021. "Couples in lockdown, "La vie en rose" ? Evidence from France," Working Papers hal-03149087, HAL.
    5. Carlos Díaz & Sebastian Fossati & Nicolás Trajtenberg, 2022. "Stay at home if you can: COVID‐19 stay‐at‐home guidelines and local crime," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(4), pages 1067-1113, December.
    6. Roee Sarel, 2022. "Crime and punishment in times of pandemics," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 155-186, October.
    7. Bisin, Alberto & Moro, Andrea, 2022. "JUE insight: Learning epidemiology by doing: The empirical implications of a Spatial-SIR model with behavioral responses," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    8. Amalia R. Miller & Carmit Segal & Melissa K. Spencer, 2024. "Effects of the COVID‐19 pandemic on domestic violence in Los Angeles," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 91(361), pages 163-187, January.
    9. Alexander Henke & Linchi Hsu, 2022. "COVID-19 and Domestic Violence: Economics or Isolation?," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 296-309, June.
    10. Hoehn-Velasco, Lauren & Silverio-Murillo, Adan & de la Miyar, Jose Roberto Balmori, 2021. "The great crime recovery: Crimes against women during, and after, the COVID-19 lockdown in Mexico," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    11. Brodeur, Abel & Cook, Nikolai & Wright, Taylor, 2021. "On the effects of COVID-19 safer-at-home policies on social distancing, car crashes and pollution," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    12. Diogo G. C. Britto & Paolo Pinotti & Breno Sampaio, 2022. "The Effect of Job Loss and Unemployment Insurance on Crime in Brazil," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(4), pages 1393-1423, July.
    13. Miller, Amalia R. & Segal, Carmit & Spencer, Melissa K., 2022. "Effects of COVID‐19 shutdowns on domestic violence in US cities," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    14. Carr, Joel & James, Jonathan & Clifton-Sprigg, Joanna & Vujic, Suncica, 2022. "Hate in the Time of COVID-19: Racial Crimes against East Asians," IZA Discussion Papers 15718, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. M. Amelia Gibbons & Tommy E. Murphy & Martín A. Rossi, 2021. "Confinement and intimate partner violence," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(3), pages 349-361, August.
    16. Jesse Matheson & Brendon McConnell & James Rockey & Argyris Sakalis, 2023. "Do Remote Workers Deter Neighborhood Crime? Evidence from the Rise of Working from Home," Working Papers 2023020, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    17. Roman, Soraya & Aguiar-Palma, Marina & Machado, Cecilia, 2023. "A tale of two cities: Heterogeneous effects of COVID-19 quarantine on domestic violence in Brazil," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    18. Yichen Shen & Rong Fu & Haruko Noguchi, 2021. "COVID‐19's Lockdown and Crime Victimization: The State of Emergency under the Abe Administration," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 16(2), pages 327-348, July.
    19. Barron, Kai & Bradshaw, Debbie & Parry, Charles D. H. & Dorrington, Rob & Groenewald, Pam & Laubscher, Ria & Matzopoulos, Richard, 2021. "Alcohol and Short-Run Mortality: Evidence from a Modern-Day Prohibition," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 273, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    20. Gulesci, Selim & Puente–Beccar, Manuela & Ubfal, Diego, 2021. "Can youth empowerment programs reduce violence against girls during the COVID-19 pandemic?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • K14 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Criminal Law
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:man:sespap:2103. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Marianne Sensier (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/semanuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.