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Measuring the natural interest rate for the Macedonian economy: a multi-model approach

Author

Listed:
  • Mite Miteski

    (National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia)

  • Magdalena Petrovska

    (National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia)

  • Рртан Сулејмани

    (National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia)

Abstract

This paper identifies the natural interest rate for the Macedonian economy using quarterly data for 2001Q4-2019Q3. To this end, the estimation is made by using different types of models, such as the Holston, Laubach, and Williams model and the full-fledged country-specific structural MAKPAM model. The empirical results show that the natural rate of interest in the Macedonian economy has declined over time, which is similar to the findings for other countries. The decomposition of the natural rate suggests that the main driver for the decline is the slowdown of the Macedonian potential GDP growth in the period after the global economic crisis, although there are signs of its recovery at the end of the sample period. In addition, the results indicate that the monetary policy conditions in the Macedonian economy have been broadly accommodative from 2011Q4 onwards. The substantive conclusions are unchanged across the multiple models used in this study.

Suggested Citation

  • Mite Miteski & Magdalena Petrovska & Рртан Сулејмани, 2023. "Measuring the natural interest rate for the Macedonian economy: a multi-model approach," Working Papers 2023-02, National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia.
    • Handle: RePEc:mae:wpaper:2023-02
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mihai Copaciu & Joana Madjoska & Mite Miteski, 2021. "A DSGE Model with Partial Euroization: The Case of the Macedonian Economy," Economy, Business & Development: An International Journal, Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje, Faculty of Economics-Skopje, vol. 2(2), pages 57-118, November.
    2. Holston, Kathryn & Laubach, Thomas & Williams, John C., 2017. "Measuring the natural rate of interest: International trends and determinants," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 59-75.
    3. Lukasz Rachel & Thomas Smith, 2015. "Secular Drivers of the Global Real Interest Rate," Discussion Papers 1605, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    4. Michał Brzoza-Brzezina, 2002. "Estimating the Natural Rate of Interest: A SVAR Approach," NBP Working Papers 27, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    5. Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2003. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1063-1070, November.
    6. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Natural interest rate; interest rate gap; Holston; Laubach; and Williams model; MAKPAM Model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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