IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/lvl/laeccr/9914.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Uncertainty and Investment in Electricity Generation: the Case of Hydro-Québec

Author

Listed:
  • Chaton, Corrine

    ()

  • Doucet, Joseph A.

    ()

Abstract

World wide the electricity industry is undergoing a substantial process of restructuring, with an emphasis on the introduction of competition in the generation sector. Competition is ostensibly going to lead to better incentives, both in the use of existing resources and in future investment decisions. One of the main drivers of this new environment will be the increased opportunity for energy sales between what had been, before the introduction of competition, fairly closed markets. These new opportunities may lead to new investments in generation and transmission capacity which will occur in order to take advantage of cost differentials between regions, one of the driving factors in the call for restructuring. Accounting for some of the underlying complexity of electricity systems, specifically equipment availability and load duration curves, this paper illustrates how uncertainty affects investment in generation. We offer a simple 2-region model to analyse this problem, based on the linear programming model of Chaton (1997). Specifically, we analyse the case where one region has access to four generation technologies, differentiated by cost characteristics as well as construction lead times. A second (neighbouring) region has access to only one of the generation technologies, hence the necessary asymmetry between producing regions. Uncertainty is present in the demand for energy in the first market, as well as in the input fuel prices. Given this uncertainty, and the possibility of electricity sales between regions, we investigate and characterise optimal generation investment in the first market as a function of the problem parameters. The model is calibrated with data from Hydro-Québec and the northeastern United States. This application is particularly interesting and relevant, given the abundance of relatively cheap hydroelectric power in Québec, and Hydro-Québec’s self-proclaimed strategic interests in increasing its exports to the northeastern markets. The numerical example illustrates the importance of appropriately modelling the complexity of the electrical system when considering the impacts of restructuring.

Suggested Citation

  • Chaton, Corrine & Doucet, Joseph A., 1999. "Uncertainty and Investment in Electricity Generation: the Case of Hydro-Québec," Cahiers de recherche 9914, Université Laval - Département d'économique.
  • Handle: RePEc:lvl:laeccr:9914
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ecn.ulaval.ca/w3/recherche/cahiers/1999/9914.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gilbert,Richard J. & Kahn,Edward P. (ed.), 1996. "International Comparisons of Electricity Regulation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521495905, April.
    2. Bernard, Jean-Thomas & Chatel, Josee, 1985. "The application of marginal cost pricing principles to a hydro-electric system : The case of hydro-Quebec," Resources and Energy, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 353-375, December.
    3. Chaton, C., 1997. "Fuel Price and Demand Uncertainties and Investment in an Electricity Model: A Two Period Model," Papers 97.476, Toulouse - GREMAQ.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Machiel Mulder & Gijsbert Zwart, 2006. "Government involvement in liberalised gas markets; a welfare-economic analysis of Dutch gas-depletion policy," CPB Document 110, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Electricity Restructuring; Investment under Uncertainty;

    JEL classification:

    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • L51 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - Economics of Regulation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lvl:laeccr:9914. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Manuel Paradis). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/delvlca.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.