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The United States and Her Creditors: Can the Symbiosis Last?

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  • Wynne Godley
  • Dimitri B. Papadimitriou
  • Claudio H. Dos Santos
  • Gennaro Zezza

Abstract

The main arguments in this paper can be simply stated: 1) If output in the US grows fast enough to keep unemployment constant between now and 2010 and if there is no further depreciation in the dollar, the deficit in the balance of trade is likely to get worse, perhaps reaching 7.5 per cent by the end of the decade. 2) If the trade deficit does not improve, let alone if it gets worse, there will be a large further deterioration in the US's net foreign asset position so that, with interest rates rising, net income payments from abroad will at last turn negative and the deficit in the current account as a whole could reach at least 8.5 per cent of GDP. . . .

Suggested Citation

  • Wynne Godley & Dimitri B. Papadimitriou & Claudio H. Dos Santos & Gennaro Zezza, 2005. "The United States and Her Creditors: Can the Symbiosis Last?," Economics Strategic Analysis Archive sa_sep_05, Levy Economics Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:lev:levysa:sa_sep_05
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2005. "Global Current Account Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustments," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 36(1), pages 67-146.
    2. Dimitri B. Papadimitriou & Anwar M. Shaikh & Claudio H. Dos Santos & Gennaro Zezza, 2005. "How Fragile is the U.S. Economy?," Economics Strategic Analysis Archive sa_mar_05, Levy Economics Institute.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yannis Dafermos, 2018. "Debt cycles, instability and fiscal rules: a Godley–Minsky synthesis," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 42(5), pages 1277-1313.
    2. Rudiger von Arnim, 2007. "WP 2007-7 Short-Run Adjustment in a Global Model of Current Account Imbalances," SCEPA working paper series. 2007-7, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
    3. Antonio Carlos Macedo e Silva & Cláudio Hamílton dos Santos, 2008. "Peering over the edge of the short period? The Keynesian Roots of Stock-Flow Consistent Macroeconomic Models," Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 200807151456380, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    4. Guttmann, Robert, 2008. "A Primer on Finance-Led Capitalism and Its Crisis," Revue de la Régulation - Capitalisme, institutions, pouvoirs, Association Recherche et Régulation, vol. 3.
    5. Yannis Dafermos, 2015. "Debt cycles, instability and fiscal rules: a Godley-Minsky model," Working Papers 20151509, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
    6. Dimitri B. Papadimitriou & Edward Chilcote & Gennaro Zezza, 2006. "Can the Growth in the U.S. Current Account Deficit Be Sustained?: The Growing Burden of Servicing Foreign-Owned U.S. Debt," Economics Strategic Analysis Archive sa_may_06, Levy Economics Institute.
    7. von Arnim, Rudiger, 2009. "Recession and rebalancing: How the housing and credit crises will impact US real activity," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 309-324, May.
    8. L. Randall Wray, 2006. "Extending Minsky's Classifications of Fragility to Government and the Open Economy," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_450, Levy Economics Institute.
    9. Dimitri B. Papadimitriou & Edward Chilcote & Gennaro Zezza, 2006. "Are Housing Prices, Household Debt, and Growth Sustainable?," Economics Strategic Analysis Archive sa_jan_06, Levy Economics Institute.

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