IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/lau/crdeep/12.01.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

On the timing and optimality of capital controls: Public expenditures, debt dynamics and welfare

Author

Listed:
  • Raouf Boucekkine
  • Aude Pommeret
  • Fabien Prieur

Abstract

This paper solves a second-best problem where a government has in particular to choose whether to tax financial inflows (capital controls) or not, and when. A multi-stage optimal control technique is used to this end. First, it is shown that it is optimal to switch in finite time from capital controls to full financial liberalization (zero tax on capital inflows) whenever a measure of total wealth is above a certain threshold. In particular, a too large initial debt makes financial liberalization sub-optimal. Second, our analysis suggests that capital controls should be used countercyclically: booms should be responded by more financial liberalization while recessions should rather lead to more stringent capital controls. Third, when public expenditure is chosen in order to maximize social welfare, financial liberalization is not unaffordable only for poor countries, even wealthy countries might find it optimal to implement capital controls if they aim to keep a large amount of public expenditure. In short, the preservation of the welfare states might require a more frequent use of capital controls.

Suggested Citation

  • Raouf Boucekkine & Aude Pommeret & Fabien Prieur, 2012. "On the timing and optimality of capital controls: Public expenditures, debt dynamics and welfare," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 12.01, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
  • Handle: RePEc:lau:crdeep:12.01
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.hec.unil.ch/deep/textes/12.01.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Boucekkine, Raouf & Saglam, Cagri & Valléee, Thomas, 2004. "Technology Adoption Under Embodiment: A Two-Stage Optimal Control Approach," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(2), pages 250-271, April.
    2. Acemoglu, Daron & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 1997. "Was Prometheus Unbound by Chance? Risk, Diversification, and Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 709-751, August.
    3. Guvenen, Fatih, 2006. "Reconciling conflicting evidence on the elasticity of intertemporal substitution: A macroeconomic perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1451-1472, October.
    4. Raouf Boucekkine & Giorgio Fabbri & Patrick A. Pintus, 2018. "Short-run pain, long-run gain: the conditional welfare gains from international financial integration," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 65(2), pages 329-360, March.
    5. Raouf Boucekkine & Patrick Pintus, 2012. "History’s a curse: leapfrogging, growth breaks and growth reversals under international borrowing without commitment," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 27-47, March.
    6. Olivier Jeanne & Anton Korinek, 2010. "Excessive Volatility in Capital Flows: A Pigouvian Taxation Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 403-407, May.
    7. Ayhan Kose, M. & Prasad, Eswar S. & Taylor, Ashley D., 2011. "Thresholds in the process of international financial integration," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 147-179, February.
    8. Beaudry, Paul & van Wincoop, Eric, 1996. "The Intertemporal Elasticity of Substitution: An Exploration Using a US Panel of State Data," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 63(251), pages 495-512, August.
    9. Hall, Robert E, 1988. "Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 339-357, April.
    10. Raouf Boucekkine & Giorgio Fabbri & Patrick A. Pintus, 2018. "Short-run pain, long-run gain: the conditional welfare gains from international financial integration," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 65(2), pages 329-360, March.
    11. Raouf Boucekkine & Giorgio Fabbri & Patrick-Antoine Pintus, 2011. "Leapfrogging, Growth Reversals and Welfare," Working Papers halshs-00576743, HAL.
    12. Kevin Gallagher, 2012. "The Myth of Financial Protectionism: The New (and old) Economics of Capital Controls," Working Papers wp278, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    13. Aizenman, Joshua & Hutchison, Michael & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2013. "What is the risk of European sovereign debt defaults? Fiscal space, CDS spreads and market pricing of risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 37-59.
    14. repec:cor:louvrp:-2335 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Raouf Boucekkine & Jacek Krawczyk & Thomas Vallée, 2011. "Environmental quality versus economic performance: A dynamic game approach," Post-Print hal-03193660, HAL.
    16. Tomiyama, Ken, 1985. "Two-stage optimal control problems and optimality conditions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 317-337, November.
    17. Mr. Anton Korinek, 2011. "The New Economics of Capital Controls Imposed for Prudential Reasons+L4888," IMF Working Papers 2011/298, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Raouf Boucekkine & Giorgio Fabbri & Patrick Pintus, 2012. "Short-Run Pain, Long-Run Gain: The Conditional Welfare Gains from International Financial Integration The Conditional Welfare Gains from International Financial Integration," AMSE Working Papers 1202, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France, revised 27 Jun 2016.
    19. Makris, Miltiadis, 2001. "Necessary conditions for infinite-horizon discounted two-stage optimal control problems," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(12), pages 1935-1950, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Daria Onori, 2015. "Optimal Growth and Debt Dynamics under GDP-Based Collaterals," Working Papers halshs-01251352, HAL.
    2. Yutao Han & Zhen Song, 2017. "On regional integration, fiscal income, and GDP per capita," CEMA Working Papers 600, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
    3. Daria Onori, 2013. "Optimal Growth under Flow-Based Collaterals," Working Papers halshs-00824672, HAL.
    4. Caliendo, Frank N. & Gorry, Aspen & Slavov, Sita, 2019. "The cost of uncertainty about the timing of Social Security reform," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 101-125.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Daria Onori, 2015. "Optimal Growth and Debt Dynamics under GDP-Based Collaterals," Working Papers halshs-01251352, HAL.
    2. Ngo Van Long & Fabien Prieur & Klarizze Puzon & Mabel Tidball, 2013. "Markov Perfect Equilibria in Differential Games with Regime Switching Strategies," Working Papers 13-06, LAMETA, Universtiy of Montpellier, revised Jan 2014.
    3. Boucekkine, R. & Pommeret, A. & Prieur, F., 2013. "Optimal regime switching and threshold effects," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2979-2997.
    4. Raouf Boucekkine & Aude Pommeret & Fabien Prieur, 2012. "Optimal Regime Switching and Threshold Effects: Theory and Application to a Resource Extraction Problem under Irreversibility," Working Papers halshs-00793200, HAL.
    5. Elke Moser & Andrea Seidl & Gustav Feichtinger, 2014. "History-dependence in production-pollution-trade-off models: a multi-stage approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 222(1), pages 457-481, November.
    6. Daria Onori, 2013. "Optimal Growth under Flow-Based Collaterals," AMSE Working Papers 1331, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France, revised 21 May 2013.
    7. Dieter Grass & Richard F. Hartl & Peter M. Kort, 2012. "Capital Accumulation and Embodied Technological Progress," Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, Springer, vol. 154(2), pages 588-614, August.
    8. Mauro Bambi & Cristina Girolami & Salvatore Federico & Fausto Gozzi, 2017. "Generically distributed investments on flexible projects and endogenous growth," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 63(2), pages 521-558, February.
    9. Raouf Boucekkine & Benteng Zou, 2019. "A Pedagogical Note on Risk Sharing Versus Instability in International Financial Integration: When Obstfeld Meets Stiglitz," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 179-190, February.
    10. Masakatsu Okubo, 2011. "The Intertemporal Elasticity of Substitution: An Analysis Based on Japanese Data," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 78(310), pages 367-390, April.
    11. Boucekkine, R. & Fabbri, G. & Pintus, P., 2014. "Growth and financial liberalization under capital collateral constraints: The striking case of the stochastic AK model with CARA preferences," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 303-307.
    12. Marianne Andries, 2012. "Consumption-based Asset Pricing Loss Aversion," 2012 Meeting Papers 571, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Coeurdacier, Nicolas & Rey, Hélène & Winant, Pablo, 2020. "Financial integration and growth in a risky world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 1-21.
    14. Raouf Boucekkine & Benteng Zou, 2017. "A Note on Risk Sharing versus Instability in International Financial Integration: When Obstfeld Meets Stiglitz," AMSE Working Papers 1730, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    15. Dogan, Erol & Le Van, Cuong & Saglam, Cagri, 2011. "Optimal timing of regime switching in optimal growth models: A Sobolev space approach," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 97-103, March.
    16. Bilge Erten & Anton Korinek & José Antonio Ocampo, 2021. "Capital Controls: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(1), pages 45-89, March.
    17. Raouf Boucekkine & Carmen Camacho & Benteng Zou, 2020. "Optimal switching from competition to cooperation: a preliminary exploration," Working Papers halshs-02434786, HAL.
    18. Bansal, Ravi & Kiku, Dana & Yaron, Amir, 2012. "An Empirical Evaluation of the Long-Run Risks Model for Asset Prices," Critical Finance Review, now publishers, vol. 1(1), pages 183-221, January.
    19. Fabbri, Giorgio, 2017. "International borrowing without commitment and informational lags: Choice under uncertainty," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 103-114.
    20. Noël Bonneuil & Raouf Boucekkine, 2016. "Viable Nash Equilibria in the Problem of Common Pollution," Working Papers halshs-01341983, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    capital controls; second-best; debt; public expenditures; multi-stage optimal control;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lau:crdeep:12.01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deelsch.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michèle Jaccoud Ramseier (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deelsch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.