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Experiments, Passive Observation and Scenario Analysis: Trygve Haavelmo and the Cointegrated Vector Autoregression

  • Kevin Hoover

    (Department of Economics and Department of Philosophy, Duke University)

  • Katarina Juselius

    (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen)

The paper provides a careful, analytical account of Trygve Haavelmo's unsystematic, but important, use of the analogy between controlled experiments common in the natural sciences and econometric techniques. The experimental analogy forms the linchpin of the methodology for passive observation that he develops in his famous monograph, The Probability Approach in Econometrics (1944). We show how, once the details of the analogy are systematically understood, the experimental analogy can be used to shed light on theory-consistent cointegrated vector autoregression (CVAR) scenario analysis. CVAR scenario analysis can be seen as a clear example of Haavelmo's 'experimental' approach; and, in turn, it can be shown to extend and develop Haavelmo's methodology and to address issues that Haavelmo regarded as unresolved.

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File URL: http://www.econ.ku.dk/english/research/publications/wp/dp_2012/1216.pdf
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Paper provided by University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 12-16.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: 05 Nov 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kud:kuiedp:1216
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  1. Eichenbaum, Martin, 1995. "Some Comments on the Role of Econometrics in Economic Theory," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(433), pages 1609-21, November.
  2. Kevin D. Hoover & Katarina Juselius & Søren Johansen, 2007. "Allowing the Data to Speak Freely: The Macroeconometrics of the Cointegrated Vector Autoregression," Discussion Papers 07-35, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  3. James J. Heckman, 2000. "Causal Parameters And Policy Analysis In Economics: A Twentieth Century Retrospective," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 45-97, February.
  4. Pedro Garcia Duarte & Kevin D. Hoover, 2012. "Observing Shocks," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 44(5), pages 226-249, Supplemen.
  5. Giese, Julia V., 2008. "Level, Slope, Curvature: Characterising the Yield Curve in a Cointegrated VAR Model," Economics Discussion Papers 2008-13, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  6. Kongsted, Hans Christian, 2005. "Testing the nominal-to-real transformation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 205-225, February.
  7. Heckman, James J, 1992. "Haavelmo and the Birth of Modern Econometrics: A Review of The History of Econometric Ideas," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 30(2), pages 876-86, June.
  8. Lars Ljungqvist & Thomas J. Sargent, 2004. "Recursive Macroeconomic Theory, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 026212274x, June.
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