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Beliefs and Realities of Work and Care After Childbirth

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew Caplin

    (New York University)

  • Soeren Leth-Petersen

    (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen)

  • Christopher Tonetti

    (Stanford Graduate School of Business)

Abstract

Models of female labor supply routinely assume that women have accurate expectations about post-birth employment, but little is known about whether this assumption holds. We use a 2019 state-contingent survey of 11,000 Danish women linked to administrative data to compare pre-birth beliefs to realized outcomes. Mothers accurately anticipate long-run return to work but systematically overestimate how soon it will occur. Miscalibration stems from two belief errors—about partner leave and own labor supply—which interact and persist even among second-time mothers.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Caplin & Soeren Leth-Petersen & Christopher Tonetti, 2025. "Beliefs and Realities of Work and Care After Childbirth," CEBI working paper series 25-07, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. The Center for Economic Behavior and Inequality (CEBI).
    • Handle: RePEc:kud:kucebi:2507
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    File URL: https://www.econ.ku.dk/cebi/publikationer/working-papers/CEBI_WP_07-25.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Children; employment expectations; administrative data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials

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