Empirical Analysis of Oil Price Determination Based on Market Quality Theory
Since the first oil shock in 1973 oil prices began to increase drastically. The 1973 and 1979 oil price shocks can be explained by supply reasons, but since the 80's, oil prices came under another type of increasing pressure. We argue that this latter with the exception of first Gulf War (1990-1991) oil price shocks, had another reason which was not a supply reason, and we found it on the demand side. Between 1981-2011, the average oil prices accelerated from about $35/barrel in 1981 to beyond $111/barrel in 2011. At the same time average interest rates subsided from 16.7 percent per annum in 1981 to about 0.1 percent per annum in 2011. In this paper we will explain how this enduring price increase in most cases was caused by expansionary monetary policies that led to low interest rates, credit demand augmentation, and then aggregate demand which heightened crude oil prices. Simultaneously, this research looks at the time-series properties of crude oil and estimates a world demand-supply model and the determinants of crude oil prices along with price and income elasticities during 1960-2011 and compares findings with two sub-periods, 1960-1980 and 1980-2011. Results show that demand is price elastic and unlike some earlier literature, supply is also affected by changes in oil price; however, income elasticity was significant only during 1980-2011. World crude oil demand was significantly influenced by interest rate, but impact of exchange rate depreciations on oil demand was not significant. Aggressive monetary policies would stimulate oil demand, but it would be met with oil supply which is rigid to monetary policies and would blow up the crude oil prices which are troublesome to economic growth. In last section we will attempt to shed light on the hypothesis of equilibrium vs. disequilibrium in the oil market, showing results that crude oil prices adjust instantly, declaring the existence of equilibrium in oil market during 1960-2011.
|Date of creation:||Mar 2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://ies.keio.ac.jp/old_project/old/gcoe-econbus/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Sylvain Leduc & Keith Sill, 2001.
"A quantitative analysis of oil-price shocks, systematic monetary policy, and economic downturns,"
01-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Leduc, Sylvain & Sill, Keith, 2004. "A quantitative analysis of oil-price shocks, systematic monetary policy, and economic downturns," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 781-808, May.
- McCallum, Bennett T, 1976. "Rational Expectations and the Natural Rate Hypothesis: Some Consistent Estimates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(1), pages 43-52, January.
- J. Hausman & W. Newey & W. Taylor, 1983.
"Efficient Estimation and Identification of Simultaneous Equation Models with Covariance Restrictions,"
331, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Hausman, Jerry A & Newey, Whitney K & Taylor, William E, 1987. "Efficient Estimation and Identification of Simultaneous Equation Models with Covariance Restrictions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(4), pages 849-74, July.
- Jerry A. Hausman & Whitney K. Newey & William E. Taylor, 1985. "Efficient Estimation and Identification of Simultaneous Equation Models with Covariance Restrictions," Working papers 369, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Bentzen, Jan & Engsted, Tom, 1993. "Short- and long-run elasticities in energy demand : A cointegration approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 9-16, January.
- Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Waston, Mark, 1997.
"Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks,"
97-25, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Mark Watson, 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(1), pages 91-157.
- Amemiya, Takeshi, 1974. "A Note on a Fair and Jaffee Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 42(4), pages 759-62, July.
- Laffont, Jean-Jacques & Monfort, Alain, 1979. "Disequilibrium econometrics in dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2-3), pages 353-361.
- Goldfeld, Stephen M. & Quandt, Richard E., 1981. "Single-market disequilibrium models : Estimating and testing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 157-157, May.
- Griffin, James M, 1985. "OPEC Behavior: A Test of Alternative Hypotheses," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(5), pages 954-63, December.
- Ramcharran, Harri, 2002. "Oil production responses to price changes: an empirical application of the competitive model to OPEC and non-OPEC countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 97-106, March.
- Anna Kormilitsina, 2011.
"Oil Price Shocks and the Optimality of Monetary Policy,"
Review of Economic Dynamics,
Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 199-223, January.
- Anna Kormilitsina, 2010. "Code and data files for "Oil Price Shocks and the Optimality of Monetary Policy"," Computer Codes 09-106, Review of Economic Dynamics.
- Anna Kormilitsina, 2009. "Oil Price Shocks and the Optimality of Monetary Policy," Departmental Working Papers 0901, Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics.
- Farzin, Y H, 1992. "The Time Path of Scarcity Rent in the Theory of Exhaustible Resources," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(413), pages 813-30, July.
- Ito, Takatoshi & Ueda, Kazuo, 1981. "Tests of the Equilibrium Hypothesis in Disequilibrium Econometrics: An International Comparison of Credit Rationing," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 22(3), pages 691-708, October.
- Askari, Hossein & Krichene, Noureddine, 2010. "An oil demand and supply model incorporating monetary policy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 2013-2021.
- Yuan, Chaoqing & Liu, Sifeng & Wu, Junlong, 2009. "Research on energy-saving effect of technological progress based on Cobb-Douglas production function," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2842-2846, August.
- Favero, Carlo A & Pesaran, M Hashem & Sharma, Sunil, 1994. "A Duration Model of Irreversible Oil Investment: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(S), pages S95-112, Suppl. De.
- Livernois, John R & Uhler, Russell S, 1987. "Extraction Costs and the Economics of Nonrenewable Resources," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(1), pages 195-203, February.
- Ricardo, David, 1821. "On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation," History of Economic Thought Books, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, edition 3, number ricardo1821.
- Krichene, Noureddine, 2002. "World crude oil and natural gas: a demand and supply model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 557-576, November.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kei:dpaper:2012-044. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Global COE Program Office)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.