IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/kei/dpaper/2012-044.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Empirical Analysis of Oil Price Determination Based on Market Quality Theory

Author

Listed:
  • Taghizadeh Hesary Farhad

    (GCOE, Keio University)

  • Naoyuki Yoshino

    (School of Economics KEIO University)

Abstract

Since the first oil shock in 1973 oil prices began to increase drastically. The 1973 and 1979 oil price shocks can be explained by supply reasons, but since the 80's, oil prices came under another type of increasing pressure. We argue that this latter with the exception of first Gulf War (1990-1991) oil price shocks, had another reason which was not a supply reason, and we found it on the demand side. Between 1981-2011, the average oil prices accelerated from about $35/barrel in 1981 to beyond $111/barrel in 2011. At the same time average interest rates subsided from 16.7 percent per annum in 1981 to about 0.1 percent per annum in 2011. In this paper we will explain how this enduring price increase in most cases was caused by expansionary monetary policies that led to low interest rates, credit demand augmentation, and then aggregate demand which heightened crude oil prices. Simultaneously, this research looks at the time-series properties of crude oil and estimates a world demand-supply model and the determinants of crude oil prices along with price and income elasticities during 1960-2011 and compares findings with two sub-periods, 1960-1980 and 1980-2011. Results show that demand is price elastic and unlike some earlier literature, supply is also affected by changes in oil price; however, income elasticity was significant only during 1980-2011. World crude oil demand was significantly influenced by interest rate, but impact of exchange rate depreciations on oil demand was not significant. Aggressive monetary policies would stimulate oil demand, but it would be met with oil supply which is rigid to monetary policies and would blow up the crude oil prices which are troublesome to economic growth. In last section we will attempt to shed light on the hypothesis of equilibrium vs. disequilibrium in the oil market, showing results that crude oil prices adjust instantly, declaring the existence of equilibrium in oil market during 1960-2011.

Suggested Citation

  • Taghizadeh Hesary Farhad & Naoyuki Yoshino, 2013. "Empirical Analysis of Oil Price Determination Based on Market Quality Theory," Keio/Kyoto Joint Global COE Discussion Paper Series 2012-044, Keio/Kyoto Joint Global COE Program.
    • Handle: RePEc:kei:dpaper:2012-044
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ies.keio.ac.jp/old_project/old/gcoe-econbus/pdf/dp/DP2012-044.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Krichene, Noureddine, 2002. "World crude oil and natural gas: a demand and supply model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 557-576, November.
    2. Laffont, Jean-Jacques & Monfort, Alain, 1979. "Disequilibrium econometrics in dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2-3), pages 353-361.
    3. McCallum, Bennett T, 1976. "Rational Expectations and the Natural Rate Hypothesis: Some Consistent Estimates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(1), pages 43-52, January.
    4. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Mark Watson, 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(1), pages 91-157.
    5. Goldfeld, Stephen M. & Quandt, Richard E., 1981. "Single-market disequilibrium models : Estimating and testing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 157-157, May.
    6. Amemiya, Takeshi, 1974. "A Note on a Fair and Jaffee Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 42(4), pages 759-762, July.
    7. Ramcharran, Harri, 2002. "Oil production responses to price changes: an empirical application of the competitive model to OPEC and non-OPEC countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 97-106, March.
    8. Ricardo, David, 1821. "On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation," History of Economic Thought Books, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, edition 3, number ricardo1821.
    9. Hausman, Jerry A & Newey, Whitney K & Taylor, William E, 1987. "Efficient Estimation and Identification of Simultaneous Equation Models with Covariance Restrictions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(4), pages 849-874, July.
    10. Leduc, Sylvain & Sill, Keith, 2004. "A quantitative analysis of oil-price shocks, systematic monetary policy, and economic downturns," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 781-808, May.
    11. Bentzen, Jan & Engsted, Tom, 1993. "Short- and long-run elasticities in energy demand : A cointegration approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 9-16, January.
    12. Ito, Takatoshi & Ueda, Kazuo, 1981. "Tests of the Equilibrium Hypothesis in Disequilibrium Econometrics: An International Comparison of Credit Rationing," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 22(3), pages 691-708, October.
    13. Askari, Hossein & Krichene, Noureddine, 2010. "An oil demand and supply model incorporating monetary policy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 2013-2021.
    14. Griffin, James M, 1985. "OPEC Behavior: A Test of Alternative Hypotheses," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(5), pages 954-963, December.
    15. Anna Kormilitsina, 2011. "Oil Price Shocks and the Optimality of Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 199-223, January.
    16. Farzin, Y H, 1992. "The Time Path of Scarcity Rent in the Theory of Exhaustible Resources," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(413), pages 813-830, July.
    17. Yuan, Chaoqing & Liu, Sifeng & Wu, Junlong, 2009. "Research on energy-saving effect of technological progress based on Cobb-Douglas production function," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2842-2846, August.
    18. Livernois, John R & Uhler, Russell S, 1987. "Extraction Costs and the Economics of Nonrenewable Resources," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(1), pages 195-203, February.
    19. Favero, Carlo A & Pesaran, M Hashem & Sharma, Sunil, 1994. "A Duration Model of Irreversible Oil Investment: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(S), pages 95-112, Suppl. De.
    20. Clifton T. Jones, 1990. "OPEC Behaviour Under Falling Prices: Implications For Cartel Stability," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 117-130.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Naoyuki Yoshino & Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, 2014. "Effectiveness of the Easing of Monetary Policy in the Japanese Economy, Incorporating Energy Prices," Macroeconomics Working Papers 24520, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    2. Yoshino, Naoyuki & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad, 2014. "Three Arrows of “Abenomics” and the Structural Reform of Japan: Inflation Targeting Policy of the Central Bank, Fiscal Consolidation, and Growth Strategy," ADBI Working Papers 492, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    3. Farhad Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, 2015. "Macroeconomic effects of oil price fluctuations on emerging and developed economies in a model incorporating monetary variables," ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2015(2), pages 51-75.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yoshino, Naoyuki & Alekhina, Victoriia, 2019. "Empirical Analysis of Global Oil Price Determinants at the Disaggregated Level Over the Last Two Decades," ADBI Working Papers 982, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    2. Soren T. Anderson & Ryan Kellogg & Stephen W. Salant, 2018. "Hotelling under Pressure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(3), pages 984-1026.
    3. Kamiar Mohaddes, 2013. "Econometric modelling of world oil supplies: terminal price and the time to depletion," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 37(2), pages 162-193, June.
    4. Bharati, Rakesh & Crain, Susan J. & Kaminski, Vincent, 2012. "Clustering in crude oil prices and the target pricing zone hypothesis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1115-1123.
    5. Güntner, Jochen H.F., 2014. "How do oil producers respond to oil demand shocks?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-13.
    6. Taran Fæhn, Cathrine Hagem, Lars Lindholt, Ståle Mæland, and Knut Einar Rosendahl, 2017. "Climate policies in a fossil fuel producing country demand versus supply side policies," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    7. Anton Nakov & Andrea Pescatori, 2007. "Inflation-output gap trade-off with a dominant oil supplier," Working Papers 0723, Banco de España.
    8. Richard G. Newell & Brian C. Prest & Ashley Vissing, 2016. "Trophy Hunting vs. Manufacturing Energy: The Price-Responsiveness of Shale Gas," NBER Working Papers 22532, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Cologni, Alessandro & Manera, Matteo, 2014. "On the economic determinants of oil production," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 68-79.
    10. Arnoud Stevens, 2015. "Optimal monetary policy response to endogenous oil price fluctuations," Working Paper Research 277, National Bank of Belgium.
    11. Haugom, Erik & Mydland, Ørjan & Pichler, Alois, 2016. "Long term oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 84-94.
    12. Fédéric Holm-Hadulla & Kirstin Hubrich, 2017. "Macroeconomic Implications of Oil Price Fluctuations : A Regime-Switching Framework for the Euro Area," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-063, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Chevillon, Guillaume & Rifflart, Christine, 2009. "Physical market determinants of the price of crude oil and the market premium," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 537-549, July.
    14. Yunqing Wang & Qigui Zhu, 2015. "Energy price shocks, monetary policy and China's economic fluctuations," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 29(1), pages 126-141, May.
    15. Herrera, Ana María & Lagalo, Latika Gupta & Wada, Tatsuma, 2015. "Asymmetries in the response of economic activity to oil price increases and decreases?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 108-133.
    16. Yousaf Raza, Muhammad & Lin, Boqiang, 2021. "Oil for Pakistan: What are the main factors affecting the oil import?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    17. Golombek, Rolf & Irarrazabal, Alfonso A. & Ma, Lin, 2018. "OPEC's market power: An empirical dominant firm model for the oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 98-115.
    18. Raghavan, Mala, 2015. "The macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks on ASEAN-5 economies," Working Papers 2015-10, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    19. De Santis, Roberto A., 2003. "Crude oil price fluctuations and Saudi Arabia's behaviour," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 155-173, March.
    20. Petter Vegard Hansen & Lars Lindholt, 2008. "The market power of OPEC 1973-2001," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(22), pages 2939-2959.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kei:dpaper:2012-044. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Global COE Program Office (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iekeijp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.