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Growth-cycle nexus


  • Kodama, Masahiro


This research sheds light on the negative correlation between economic growth and business cycle in less developed economies. Whereas many previous studies explain the negative correlation from a viewpoint in which business cycle affects economic growth, we attempt to present a hypothesis based on the other influence direction in which economic growth affects business cycle. We investigate the validity of the hypothesis using two methods: econometric analysis and numerical analysis. We find that the econometric analysis supports our hypothesis. The numerical analysis shows that the effect of the proposed hypothesis produces the negative correlation between economic growth and business cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Kodama, Masahiro, 2013. "Growth-cycle nexus," IDE Discussion Papers 387, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
  • Handle: RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper387

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. King, Robert G. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1999. "Resuscitating real business cycles," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 14, pages 927-1007 Elsevier.
    6. Martin, Philippe & Ann Rogers, Carol, 2000. "Long-term growth and short-term economic instability," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 359-381, February.
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    9. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker than Others?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(1), pages 83-116.
    10. Ashoka Mody & Kamil Yilmaz, 2002. "Imported Machinery for Export Competitiveness," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 16(1), pages 23-48, June.
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    13. Bruton, H.J., 1998. "A Reconsideration of Import Substitution," Center for Development Economics 156, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    14. Peter Klenow & Andrés Rodríguez-Clare, 1997. "The Neoclassical Revival in Growth Economics: Has It Gone Too Far?," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 73-114 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    16. Nazrul Islam, 1995. "Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(4), pages 1127-1170.
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    More about this item


    Developing countries; Economic growth; Economic development; Business cycles; Growth; Less Developed Economies;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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