Persistencies in the Labour Market
Using longitudinal income-tax registers, we study how past labour market outcomes affect current labour market transition rates. We focus on hysteresis effects of the durations and incidence of previous spells out of work. We estimate flexible multi-state Mixed Proportional Hazard specifications for transition rates between employment, unemployment, and welfare/non-participation. Our main finding is that after longer periods of employment with high income, individuals' transition rates from unemployment to employment increase. Longer periods of non-employment generally decrease future transition rates to work, and sometimes also from work. The quantitative magnitude of persistency and hysteresis effects on inequality is modest.
|Date of creation:||Feb 2009|
|Publication status:||forthcoming in: R&R Oxford bulletin of Economics and Statistics|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: IZA, P.O. Box 7240, D-53072 Bonn, Germany|
Phone: +49 228 3894 223
Fax: +49 228 3894 180
Web page: http://www.iza.org
|Order Information:|| Postal: IZA, Margard Ody, P.O. Box 7240, D-53072 Bonn, Germany|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Philip de Jong & Maarten Lindeboom & Bas van der Klaauw, 2011.
"Screening Disability Insurance Applications,"
Journal of the European Economic Association,
European Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 106-129, 02.
- de Jong, Philip & Lindeboom, Maarten & van der Klaauw, Bas, 2006. "Screening disability insurance applications," Working Paper Series 2006:15, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
- de Jong, Philip & Lindeboom, Maarten & van der Klaauw, Bas, 2006. "Screening Disability Insurance Applications," IZA Discussion Papers 1981, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Philip de Jong & Maarten Lindeboom & Bas van der Klaauw, 2006. "Screening Disability Insurance Applications," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-018/3, Tinbergen Institute.
- de Jong, Philip & Lindeboom, Maarten & van der Klaauw, Bas, 2006. "Screening Disability Insurance Applications," CEPR Discussion Papers 5564, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Audra J. Bowlus & Jean-Marc Robin, 2004. "Twenty Years of Rising Inequality in U.S. Lifetime Labour Income Values," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 71(3), pages 709-742.
- Audra J, Bowlus & Jean-Marc Robin, 2002. "Twenty Years of Rising Inequality in US Lifetime Labor Income Values," Working Papers 2002-58, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
- Audra J. Bowlus & Jean-Marc Robin, 2004. "Twenty Years of Rising Inequality in U.S. Lifetime Labour Income Values," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00279656, HAL.
- Lars Ljungqvist & Thomas J. Sargent, 1998. "The European Unemployment Dilemma," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(3), pages 514-550, June.
- Lars Ljungqvist & Thomas J. Sargent, 1995. "The European unemployment dilemma," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 95-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Ljungqvist, Lars & Sargent, Thomas J., 1997. "The European Unemployment Dilemma," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 178, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Lars Ljungqvist & Thomas J. Sargent, 1996. "The European Unemployment Dilemma," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 36, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).
- Ljungqvist, Lars & Sargent, Thomas J., 1997. "The European Unemployment Dilemma," Working Paper Series 481, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
- Lindbeck, Assar, 1995. "Hazardous Welfare-State Dynamics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(2), pages 9-15, May.
- Lindbeck, Assar, 1995. "Hazardous Welfare-State Dynamics," Working Paper Series 428, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
- Anna Christina D'Addio & Bo E. Honoré, "undated". "Duration Dependence and Timevarying Variables in Discrete Time Duration Models," Economics Working Papers 2002-13, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Anna Cristina D'Addio & Bo E. Honoré, 2002. "Duration dependence and time varying variables in discrete time duration models," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 D6-3, International Conferences on Panel Data.
- Van den Berg, Gerard J., 2001. "Duration models: specification, identification and multiple durations," Handbook of Econometrics,in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 55, pages 3381-3460 Elsevier.
- Van den Berg, Gerard J., 2000. "Duration Models: Specification, Identification, and Multiple Durations," MPRA Paper 9446, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Omori, Yoshiaki, 1997. "Stigma Effects of Nonemployment," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(2), pages 394-416, April.
- Blau, David M, 1994. "Labor Force Dynamics of Older Men," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(1), pages 117-156, January.
- Anthony B. Atkinson & Wiemer Salverda, 2005. "Top Incomes In The Netherlands And The United Kingdom Over The 20th Century," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(4), pages 883-913, 06.
- Cohen, Daniel, 1999. "Welfare Differentials Across French and US Labour Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 2114, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Burgess, Simon & Propper, Carol & Rees, Hedley & Shearer, Arran, 2003. "The class of 1981: the effects of early career unemployment on subsequent unemployment experiences," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 291-309, June.
- Lynch, Lisa M, 1989. "The Youth Labor Market in the Eighties: Determinants of Re-employment Probabilities for Young Men and Women," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(1), pages 37-45, February.
- Choi, HwaJung & Shin, Donggyun, 2002. "Do past unemployment spells affect the duration of current unemployment?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 157-161, October.
- Gregg, Paul, 2001. "The Impact of Youth Unemployment on Adult Unemployment in the NCDS," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(475), pages 626-653, November.
- Arulampalam, Wiji, 2002. "State Dependence in Unemployment Incidence: Evidence for British Men Revisited," IZA Discussion Papers 630, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Lindeboom, M. & Van Der Berg, G.J., 1991. "Heterogeneity in Models for Bivariate Survival : the Importance of the Mixing Distribution," Papers 430, Groningen State, Institute of Economic Research-. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)