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Has AI Widened Employment Gaps? Tracking Early-Career Employment by Occupational Exposure in Norway

Author

Listed:
  • Hernaes, Øystein

    (Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research)

  • Kostøl, Andreas

    (BI Norwegian Business School)

Abstract

This paper uses data on the universe of private-sector employment in Norway up to February 2026 to examine whether AI exposure has contributed to a widening employment gap across occupations with varying AI exposure. Since October 2022, the month before ChatGPT's release, employment in the most exposed occupations has grown by 0.1 percent, against 0.3 percent in the least exposed occupations. We track this number on a monthly basis on the public dashboard \emph{kiindeksen.no}. The dashboard updates the full-distribution comparison each month as new administrative data arrives, allowing differential employment growth by AI exposure to be tracked over time. We also show that when we compare young workers by complete occupation quintiles of exposure, the relative decline of the most exposed quintile is estimated as an imprecise zero.

Suggested Citation

  • Hernaes, Øystein & Kostøl, Andreas, 2026. "Has AI Widened Employment Gaps? Tracking Early-Career Employment by Occupational Exposure in Norway," IZA Discussion Papers 18767, IZA Network @ LISER.
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18767
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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