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Is This Time Different? 35 Years of European Expectations about Technology and Jobs

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Fears that automation destroys more jobs than it creates have resurfaced with artificial intelligence. Using five Eurobarometer waves (1989–2024) covering 12 European countries, I examine the long-run evolution of perceptions of technological unemployment. Contemporary pessimism is not historically unusual, it was substantially higher in 1989, and especially 1992, than in 2024. Social divides have also changed. Pronounced educational and occupational differences in 1989 had largely disappeared by 2024. An Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition shows that changing population composition explains little of the decline. These findings show that both the level and the socioeconomic and national patterning of concerns about technological unemployment have changed substantially over time.

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  • Tom Coupé, 2026. "Is This Time Different? 35 Years of European Expectations about Technology and Jobs," Working Papers in Economics 26/07, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbt:econwp:26/07
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