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Narratives of Migration and Political Polarization: Private Preferences, Public Preferences and Social Media

Author

Listed:
  • Levi, Eugenio

    (Link Campus University)

  • Bayerlein, Michael

    (German Institute for International and Security Affairs)

  • Grimalda, Gianluca

    (University of Passau)

  • Reggiani, Tommaso G.

    (Cardiff University)

Abstract

We study how preferences for migration-related narratives differ between private and public contexts and how social media fuel opinion polarization. Using a German representative sample (n=1,226), we found that individuals, especially from the left and center, avoided publicly endorsing anti-migration narratives. In an experiment on Twitter (n=19,989) we created four Twitter profiles, each endorsing one of the narratives. Far-right users exhibited markedly different engagement patterns. While initial public endorsements, measured by follow-back rates, aligned with private preferences, social media interactions amplified support for the most hostile and polarizing narrative. We conclude that social media significantly distort private preferences and amplify polarization.

Suggested Citation

  • Levi, Eugenio & Bayerlein, Michael & Grimalda, Gianluca & Reggiani, Tommaso G., 2025. "Narratives of Migration and Political Polarization: Private Preferences, Public Preferences and Social Media," IZA Discussion Papers 17749, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17749
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    immigration; narratives; political polarization; economic reciprocity; survey experiment; field experiment; group identity; social media; Twitter;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • C93 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Field Experiments

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