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Peacefully Demobilizing Rebels: Identity, Emotional Cues, and the FARC

Author

Listed:
  • Aparicio, Juan P.

    (University of Western Australia)

  • Jetter, Michael

    (University of Western Australia)

  • Parsons, Christopher

    (University of Western Australia)

Abstract

In the early 2000s, the Colombian government aired messages during games of the national football team, urging FARC rebels to demobilize. We first study the strategy's effectiveness, leveraging game dates, kick-off times, and spatial-temporal variation in rain-induced signal strength in a municipality-day-level panel spanning 2003-2016. Over 1,000 rebels demobilized because of family-themed (but not national-unity-themed) messages, received during unexpected losses (i.e., negative emotional cues). We then model a rebel's demobilization decision, combining identity salience with their emotional state. Finally, we corroborate the model's predictions examining family- versus non-family-specific holidays and local climatic anomalies.

Suggested Citation

  • Aparicio, Juan P. & Jetter, Michael & Parsons, Christopher, 2023. "Peacefully Demobilizing Rebels: Identity, Emotional Cues, and the FARC," IZA Discussion Papers 16054, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16054
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    civil war; conflict resolution; demobilization; hearts-and-minds; information campaigns;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • L82 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Entertainment; Media
    • N46 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - Latin America; Caribbean
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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