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The Reach of Radio: Ending Civil Conflict through Rebel Demobilization

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  • Alex Armand
  • Paul Atwell
  • Joseph F. Gomes

Abstract

We examine the role of FM radio in mitigating violent conflict. We collect original data on radio broadcasts encouraging defections during the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) insurgency. This constitutes the first quantitative evaluation of an active counterinsurgency policy that encourages defections through radio messages. Exploiting random topography-driven variation in radio coverage along with panel variation at the grid-cell level, we identify the causal effect of messaging on violence. Broadcasting defection messages increases defections and reduces fatalities, violence against civilians, and clashes with security forces. Income shocks have opposing effects on both the conflict and the effectiveness of messaging.

Suggested Citation

  • Alex Armand & Paul Atwell & Joseph F. Gomes, 2020. "The Reach of Radio: Ending Civil Conflict through Rebel Demobilization," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(5), pages 1395-1429, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:110:y:2020:i:5:p:1395-1429
    DOI: 10.1257/aer.20181135
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • L82 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Entertainment; Media
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements

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