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Equilibrium Job Turnover and the Business Cycle

Author

Listed:
  • Carrillo-Tudela, Carlos

    (University of Essex)

  • Clymo, Alex

    (University of Essex)

  • Coles, Melvyn

    (University of Essex)

Abstract

This paper develops and estimates a fully microfounded equilibrium business cycle model of the US labor market with aggregate productivity shocks. Those microfoundations are consistent with evidence regarding the underlying distribution of firm growth rates across firms [by age and size] and, when aggregated, are consistent with macro-evidence regarding gross job creation and job destruction flows over the cycle. By additionally incorporating on-the-job search, we systematically characterise the stochastic relationships between aggregate job creation and job destruction flows across firms, gross hire and quit flows [churning] by workers across firms, as well as the persistence and volatility of unemployment and worker job finding rates over the cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Carrillo-Tudela, Carlos & Clymo, Alex & Coles, Melvyn, 2021. "Equilibrium Job Turnover and the Business Cycle," IZA Discussion Papers 14869, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14869
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Davis, Steven J. & Faberman, R. Jason & Haltiwanger, John, 2012. "Labor market flows in the cross section and over time," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 1-18.
    2. Young, Eric R., 2010. "Solving the incomplete markets model with aggregate uncertainty using the Krusell-Smith algorithm and non-stochastic simulations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 36-41, January.
    3. Robert Shimer, 2005. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 25-49, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Colciago, Andrea & Fasani, Stefano & Rossi, Lorenza, 2025. "Firm entry, endogenous wage moderation, and labor market dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    2. Michael W. L. Elsby & Axel Gottfries & Ryan Michaels & David Ratner, 2025. "Vacancy Chains," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 133(11), pages 3550-3604.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J62 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Job, Occupational and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs

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