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Single Factor Stochastic Models With Seasonality Applied To Underlying Weather Derivatives Variables


  • Enric Valor

    (Universitat de València)

  • Hipòlit Torró

    (Universitat de València)

  • Vicente Meneu

    (Universitat de València)


This paper estimates single factor stochastic models describing daily air temperature behaviour. We modify classical financial models to reflect temperature seasonality and fit them to a time series representing temperatures in Spain. The estimated models are used in Montecarlo simulations to obtain heating and cooling degree-days, which are used as an underlying reference in weather derivatives. The final goal of this work is to obtain an insight into weather derivative valuation, and so making it easier to manage economic activity risks closely related to temperature (i.e. oil, gas and electricity prices and volumes). En este trabajo se estiman modelos estocásticos unifactoriales que describen elcomportamiento de la temperatura del aire de un índice representativo de la Españapeninsular. Los modelos más utilizados en finanzas se adaptan para incorporar elcomportamiento estacional de la variable temperatura. El objetivo de este trabajo es obtenerresultados que permitan avanzar en la valoración de activos derivados sobre climatología.Este tipo de derivados permiten gestionar riesgos de la actividad económica estrechamenterelacionados con la temperatura (por ejemplo, los riesgos de precio y volumen del gas y laelectricidad). Con los modelos estimados se realiza un ejercicio de simulación de Montecarlopara obtener los grados día frío y los grados día calor que son las referencias subyacentes enlos contratos de meteorología.

Suggested Citation

  • Enric Valor & Hipòlit Torró & Vicente Meneu, 2001. "Single Factor Stochastic Models With Seasonality Applied To Underlying Weather Derivatives Variables," Working Papers. Serie EC 2001-22, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  • Handle: RePEc:ivi:wpasec:2001-22

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Brennan, Michael J. & Schwartz, Eduardo S., 1982. "An Equilibrium Model of Bond Pricing and a Test of Market Efficiency," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(03), pages 301-329, September.
    2. Peña Sánchez de Rivera, Juan Ignacio & Moreno, Manuel, 1995. "On the term structure of Interbank interest rates: jump-diffusion processes and option pricing," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 7074, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    3. John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005. "A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Pardo, Angel & Meneu, Vicente & Valor, Enric, 2002. "Temperature and seasonality influences on Spanish electricity load," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 55-70, January.
    5. Henley, Andrew & Peirson, John, 1998. "Residential energy demand and the interaction of price and temperature: British experimental evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 157-171, April.
    6. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    7. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
    8. Peirson, John & Henley, Andrew, 1994. "Electricity load and temperature : Issues in dynamic specification," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 235-243, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sean D. Campbell & Francis X. Diebold, 2005. "Weather Forecasting for Weather Derivatives," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, pages 6-16.
    2. Kosater, Peter, 2006. "Cross-city hedging with weather derivatives using bivariate DCC GARCH models," Discussion Papers in Econometrics and Statistics 2/06, University of Cologne, Institute of Econometrics and Statistics.

    More about this item


    Grados Día Frío; Energía; Grados Día Calor; Estacionalidad; Modelos estocásticos y Derivados de la meteorología. Cooling Degree-days; Energy; Heating Degree-days; Seasonality; Stochastic Models; Weather Derivatives.;

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates


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