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Substituição de Poupança Interna por Externa e Sobreapreciações da Taxa de Câmbio

Author

Listed:
  • Marcos Rocha
  • Nelson Marconi

Abstract

O texto avalia a estratégia de crescimento com poupança externa adotada por muitos países e suas consequências. De acordo com Bresser-Pereira e Nakano (2003), existe nas economias emergentes uma alta taxa de substituição de poupança interna por externa durante o processo de influxo dos recursos estrangeiros, resultante desta estratégia de crescimento. Isto acontece porque, em geral, a maior parte do déficit em conta-corrente se transforma em consumo de importados; a parcela gasta em investimento é pequena, dada a alta propensão a consumir dos países em desenvolvimento e as sobreapreciações cambiais derivadas desta política de crescimento. O estudo avaliou teórica e empiricamente a existência de substituição de poupança externa por interna nos países em desenvolvimento e o papel adverso da sobreapreciação da taxa de câmbio real (TCR). Para isso, foi utilizado um painel dinâmico, System-GMM, com 48 países de renda média como amostra, no período de 1970-2004. Os resultados mostram um processo de substituição de poupança interna por externa significativa, com interação entre sobreapreciação do câmbio e influxo de recursos externos. This paper evaluates the strategy of growth cum foreign savings adopted by many emerging countries, and its consequences. Bresser-Pereira and Nakano (2003) points out that there is in emerging countries a high rate of substitution of foreign and domestic savings during the process of influx of foreign capitals as a result from a dependent growth policy. This savings displacement happens because most of the resulting deficit in current account (the foreign savings) turns into consumption of imports; the parcel used as investment expenditures is small, since these economies has a high propensity of consumption and also because this policy tends to over-evaluate the real exchange rate. The chapter evaluates theoretically and empirically the existence of savings displacement and the adverse role of the of the real exchange rate valuation. To this aim, it is estimated a System-GMM dynamic panel using a panel sample of 48 countries of medium income, in the period span of 1970-2004. The results show a significant process of substitution savings, allied to an interaction between overvaluation of the exchange rate and the influx of external financial flows.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcos Rocha & Nelson Marconi, 2013. "Substituição de Poupança Interna por Externa e Sobreapreciações da Taxa de Câmbio," Discussion Papers 1870, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    • Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1870
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    References listed on IDEAS

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