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The Variance of Inflation and the Stability of the Demand for Money in Brazil: a Bayesian Approach

Author

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  • Elcyon Caiado Rocha Lima
  • Ricardo Sandes Ehlers

Abstract

When analyzing the demand for money in high inflation processes it has been suggested [Tourinho (1995)] that we should consider not only the effects of changes in the expected inflation rate but also changes in the expected variability of inflation. The model in Lima & Ehlers (1993) is extended here to deal more accurately with the uncertainty produced by the variability of inflation: a term proportional to the expected quadratic error in forecasting inflation is included in the demand for money equation. The problem of what estimate to use for the expected variance of inflation, is addressed by a Bayesian estimation procedure. Model parameters are allowed to vary slowly over time and Bayesian monitoring and intervention procedures are then used to cater for structural changes. We estimate the model with data ranging from first quarter of 1973 to fourth quarter of 1995, thus taking into account many stabilization plans for the Brazilian economy. We find that the presence of variance of inflation in our money demand equation is important in two ways: a) it prevents the monitor from signaling again in 1990 after an intervention period in 1986 and b) its effect turns out to be significant after 1986 when many stabilization plans contributed to increase uncertainty. Em trabalho recente Tourinho (1995) sugeriu que, em processos de inflação elevada, deve ser considerada não somente a esperança da taxa de inflação mas também a variância esperada da taxa de inflação O modelo apresentado em Lima & Ehlers (1993) é aqui estendido para lidar com a incerteza produzida pela variabilidade da taxa de inflação : um termo proporcional à esperança do erro quadrático médio, na previsão da taxa de inflação, é incluído na equação de demanda por moeda. O problema de que estimativa utilizar, para a variância esperada da taxa de inflação, é resolvido através de um procedimento de estimação Bayesiano. É permitida a alteração dos parâmetros do modelo ao longo do tempo e são adotados procedimentos de monitoramento e intervenção Bayesianos para detectar-se mudanças estruturais. O modelo foi estimado com dados trimestrais entre o primeiro trimestre de 1973 e o quarto trimestre de 1995, e portanto considerando-se os diversos planos recentes de estabilização da economia Brasileira. Nós concluímos que a presença da variância esperada da taxa de inflação, na equação de demanda por moeda, é importante por duas razões principais: a) ela impede que o monitor sinalize em 1990 após uma intervenção no modelo em 1986 e b) o seu efeito se torna significante depois de 1986 quando diversos planos de estabilização contribuíram para aumentar a incerteza a respeito da taxa de inflação.

Suggested Citation

  • Elcyon Caiado Rocha Lima & Ricardo Sandes Ehlers, 2015. "The Variance of Inflation and the Stability of the Demand for Money in Brazil: a Bayesian Approach," Discussion Papers 0067, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
  • Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:0067
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Litterman, Robert B, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions-Five Years of Experience," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 25-38, January.
    2. Rossi, José W., 1990. "Comportamento dos agregados e multiplicadores monetários no Brasil," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 44(2), April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Joao Ricardo Faria, 2000. "The demand for currency in the presence of indexed money: the case of Brazil," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 41-43.

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