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Indian Economic Outlook 2008-09 and 2009-10

Author

Listed:
  • Rajiv Kumar

    () (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Rela)

  • Mathew Joseph

    () (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Rela)

  • Dony Alex

    () (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Rela)

  • Pankaj Vashisht

    ()

Abstract

This paper provides an outlook for the Indian economy in the light of theextraordinary global financial crisis, that started in the US, but which has nowtransformed into the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. TheIndian economy was slowing down even before the onset of global crisis and so thetiming of this external shock could not have been worse. The analysis undertaken forthis paper shows that the global crisis is likely to bring the Indian GDP growth ratedown considerably. This will pose a big challenge requiring urgent and sustainedpolicy attention to prevent this downturn from becoming unnecessarily prolonged.There is real downside risk that the growth rate could plummet to the pre-1980s levelsif appropriate countercyclical measures are not taken immediately and are noturgently followed by necessary structural reforms. The paper provides a short-termforecast for GDP growth based on a model of leading economic indicators. Wepresent three scenarios in the paper assuming differentiated impact of the externalcrisis. Finally the paper suggests a set of policy measures to get the Indian economyback on the path of sustained rapid and inclusive growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Rajiv Kumar & Mathew Joseph & Dony Alex & Pankaj Vashisht, "undated". "Indian Economic Outlook 2008-09 and 2009-10," Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi Working Papers 234, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi, India.
  • Handle: RePEc:ind:icrier:234
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    File URL: http://www.icrier.org/publication/WorkingPaper234.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecasting; Indian economic growth; Economic outlook and conditions; Financial crises;

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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