IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/eab/macroe/22916.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Indian Economic Outlook 2008-09 and 2009-10

Author

Listed:
  • Rajiv Kumar

    (ICRIER)

  • Mathew Joseph
  • Dony Alex
  • Pankaj Vashisht
  • Debosree Banerjee

Abstract

This paper provides an outlook for the Indian economy in the light of the extraordinary global financial crisis, that started in the US, but which has now transformed into the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. The Indian economy was slowing down even before the onset of global crisis and so the timing of this external shock could not have been worse. The analysis undertaken for this paper shows that the global crisis is likely to bring the Indian GDP growth rate down considerably. This will pose a big challenge requiring urgent and sustained policy attention to prevent this downturn from becoming unnecessarily prolonged. There is real downside risk that the growth rate could plummet to the pre-1980s levels if appropriate countercyclical measures are not taken immediately and are not urgently followed by necessary structural reforms. The paper provides a short-term forecast for GDP growth based on a model of leading economic indicators. We present three scenarios in the paper assuming differentiated impact of the external crisis. Finally the paper suggests a set of policy measures to get the Indian economy back on the path of sustained rapid and inclusive growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Rajiv Kumar & Mathew Joseph & Dony Alex & Pankaj Vashisht & Debosree Banerjee, 2009. "Indian Economic Outlook 2008-09 and 2009-10," Macroeconomics Working Papers 22916, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:eab:macroe:22916
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.eaber.org/node/22916
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. "Debt Intolerance," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 1-74.
    2. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2013. "Banking crises: An equal opportunity menace," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4557-4573.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sreenilayam, Dr Jomon Mathew, 2013. "Trends and Challenges of India’s Balance of Payments," MPRA Paper 51387, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Sep 2013.
    2. Mathew, Dr Jomon, 2013. "Trends and Challenges of India’s Balance of Payments," MPRA Paper 51167, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecasting; Indian economic growth; Economic outlook and conditions; Financial crises;

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eab:macroe:22916. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shiro Armstrong). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/eaberau.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.