IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2001-121.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Is Foreign Debt Portfolio Management Efficient in Emerging Economies?

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Khaled Hussein

Abstract

This paper develops a simple model of foreign debt portfolio management. The model suggests that, under mild conditions, the currency composition of a country's foreign debt portfolio is responsive to exchange rate movements. Empirical evidence is provided for a panel of 14 emerging economies in the period 1970-98. Attention is focused on the stocks of foreign liabilities denominated in U.S. dollars, deutsche marks (DM), Japanese yen, and Swiss francs. The results of the empirical analysis show that foreign debt portfolio management has been sub-optimal in the countries under examination. In these countries, the currency composition of foreign debt has not reflected a substitution effect away from the currencies that have appreciated over time vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Khaled Hussein, 2001. "Is Foreign Debt Portfolio Management Efficient in Emerging Economies?," IMF Working Papers 2001/121, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2001/121
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=15214
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Chihwa Kao & Min‐Hsien Chiang & Bangtian Chen, 1999. "International R&D Spillovers: An Application of Estimation and Inference in Panel Cointegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 691-709, November.
    3. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
    4. Fry, Maxwell J., 1992. "Some stabilizing and destabilizing effects of foreign debt accumulation in developing countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 315-321, July.
    5. Anindya Banerjee, 1999. "Panel Data Unit Roots and Cointegration: An Overview," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 607-629, November.
    6. Kao, Chihwa & Chiang, Min-Hsien & Chen, Bangtian, 1999. "International R&D Spillovers: An Application of Estimation and Inference in Panel Cointegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 691-709, Special I.
    7. Claessens, Stijn, 1992. "The Optimal Currency Composition of External Debt: Theory and Applications to Mexico and Brazil," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 6(3), pages 503-528, September.
    8. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    9. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1999. "What caused the Asian currency and financial crisis?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 305-373, October.
    10. Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May.
    11. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
    12. Carmen A. Li, 1992. "Latin America: A case for debt relief and foreign aid?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(2), pages 217-231, March.
    13. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    14. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Anthony M. Solomon & William S. Ogden & Eduardo Wiesner & R. T. McNamar, 1988. "Developing Country Debt," NBER Chapters, in: International Economic Cooperation, pages 233-320, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Shin, Yongcheol, 1994. "A Residual-Based Test of the Null of Cointegration Against the Alternative of No Cointegration," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(1), pages 91-115, March.
    16. McCoskey, Suzanne & Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Testing the Stability of a Production Function with Urbanization as a Shift Factor," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 671-690, Special I.
    17. Quah, Danny, 1994. "Exploiting cross-section variation for unit root inference in dynamic data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 9-19.
    18. Michael P. Dooley, 1994. "A Retrospective on the Debt Crisis," NBER Working Papers 4963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    20. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 1998. "What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis? Part I: A Macroeconomic Overview," NBER Working Papers 6833, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Richard N. Cooper, 1992. "Economic Stabilization and Debt in Developing Countries," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262031876, December.
    22. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 1994. "Interest rates, official lending, and the debt crisis: A reassessment," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 263-285, August.
    23. Boothe, Paul & Reid, Bradford, 1992. "Debt Management Objectives for a Small Open Economy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 24(1), pages 43-60, February.
    24. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    25. Banerjee, Anindya, 1999. "Panel Data Unit Roots and Cointegration: An Overview," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 607-629, Special I.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Junko Shimizu & Eiji Ogawa, 2004. "Risk Properties of AMU denominated Asian Bonds," Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series d04-45, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    2. Albu, Lucian-Liviu, 2008. "A simulation model of public debt sustainability," MPRA Paper 11713, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Dudzich Viktar, 2020. "Relationships between exchange rate regime, real exchange rate volatility and currency structure of government bonds in emerging markets," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 20(1), pages 3-22, March.
    4. Marwan Abdul-Malik Thanoon & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah, 2012. "Comparing Savings Behavior in Asia and Latin America: The Role of Capital Inflows and Economic Growth," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 46(1), pages 113-131, January-J.
    5. Shimizu, Junko & Ogawa, Eiji, 2005. "Risk properties of AMU denominated Asian bonds," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 590-611, August.
    6. Jane Mpapalika, 2020. "Alternative Financing Instruments for African Economies," 2020 Papers pmp2, Job Market Papers.
    7. Albu Lucian-Liviu, 2011. "Fiscal And Debt Sustainability And Growth Challenges," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 6(3), pages 5-38, December.
    8. Auboin, Marc, 2004. "The trade, debt and finance nexus: at the cross-roads of micro- and macroeconomics," WTO Discussion Papers 6, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hussein, Khaled A. & de Mello, Luiz Jr., 2001. "Is foreign debt portfolio management efficient in emerging economies?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 317-335, October.
    2. Valérie Mignon & Christophe Hurlin, 2007. "Une synthèse des tests de cointégration sur données de panel," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 180(4), pages 241-265.
    3. Badi H. Baltagi & Chihwa Kao, 2000. "Nonstationary Panels, Cointegration in Panels and Dynamic Panels: A Survey," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 16, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
    4. Juan Carlos Aquino & N. R. Ramírez-Rondán, 2020. "Estimating factor shares from nonstationary panel data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(5), pages 2353-2380, May.
    5. Laura Bottazzi & Giovanni Peri, 2005. "The International Dynamics of R&D and Innovation in the Short and in the Long Run," NBER Working Papers 11524, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Giovanni Peri & Laura Bottaz, 2005. "The International Dynamics of R&D and Innovationin the Short Run and in the Long Run," Working Papers 250, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    7. Dierk Herzer & Holger Strulik & Sebastian Vollmer, 2012. "The long-run determinants of fertility: one century of demographic change 1900–1999," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 357-385, December.
    8. Dinda, Soumyananda & Coondoo, Dipankor, 2006. "Income and emission: A panel data-based cointegration analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 167-181, May.
    9. Robert J. Sonora & Josip Tica, 2014. "Harrod, Balassa, and Samuelson (re)visit Eastern Europe," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 1-17, December.
    10. Jesús Crespo‐Cuaresma & Jarko Fidrmuc & Ronald MacDonald, 2005. "The monetary approach to exchange rates in the CEECs," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 13(2), pages 395-416, April.
    11. Breitung, Jörg & Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem, 2005. "Unit roots and cointegration in panels," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,42, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    12. Dierk Herzer, 2017. "Refugee Immigration and Total Factor Productivity," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 390-414, July.
    13. Luintel, Kul B. & Selim, Sheikh & Bajracharya, Pushkar, 2017. "Liberalization, bankers’ motivation and productivity: A simple model with an application," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 102-112.
    14. Jesús Crespo-Cuaresma & Jarko Fidrmuc & Ronald MacDonald, 2003. "The Monetary Approach to Exchange Rates in the CEECs Relations and Output Performance," Vienna Economics Papers 0313, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
    15. Miguel León-Ledesma, 2000. "R&D Spillovers and Export Performance: Evidence from the OECD Countries," Studies in Economics 0014, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    16. Evren Erdogan Cosar, 2002. "Price and Income Elasticities of Turkish Export Demand : A Panel Data Application," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 2(2), pages 19-53.
    17. Alessandro Bellocchi & Edgar J. Sanchez Carrera & Giuseppe Travaglini, 2021. "What drives TFP long-run dynamics in five large European economies?," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 38(2), pages 569-595, July.
    18. Win Chou & Dominica Lee, 2005. "Panel Cointegration Analysis of Audit Pricing Model," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 423-439, June.
    19. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2004. "Testing the monetary model of exchange rate determination: a closer look at panels," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 867-895, October.
    20. Carlos Alberto Barreto Nieto & Jacobo Campo Robledo, 2012. "Relación a largo plazo entre consumo de energía y PIB en América Latina: Una evaluación empírica con datos panel," Revista Ecos de Economía, Universidad EAFIT, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2001/121. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.