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Estimates of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates, November 2013

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  • William R. Cline

    () (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

Abstract

Since the previous estimates of fundamental equilibrium exchange rates (FEERs) in May 2013, numerous exchange rates have moved substantially in response to the US Federal Reserve's announcement that it would likely begin to "taper" its quantitative easing. Despite widespread concern that this "taper shock" has wreaked havoc in international capital and currency markets, exchange rate misalignments have tended to narrow in the past six months. Overvalued currencies have corrected downward in Turkey, South Africa, India, Indonesia, and even Australia. Medium-term surplus estimates have moderated in Taiwan, Sweden, Switzerland, and Japan, narrowing the extent of their undervaluations. Cases of large misalignments persist, however, with Singapore once again undervalued by 21 percent, New Zealand again overvalued by nearly 18 percent, and Turkey still overvalued by 18 percent despite some correction. The overvaluation of the dollar and undervaluation of the Chinese renminbi remain modest and no longer constitute the severe imbalances of 2006–07.

Suggested Citation

  • William R. Cline, 2013. "Estimates of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates, November 2013," Policy Briefs PB13-29, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:iie:pbrief:pb13-29
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    File URL: https://piie.com/publications/policy-briefs/estimates-fundamental-equilibrium-exchange-rates-november-2013
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:oup:apecpp:v:39:y:2017:i:1:p:177-198. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Yin-Wong Cheung & Shi He, 2019. "Truths and Myths About RMB Misalignment: A Meta-analysis," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 61(3), pages 464-492, September.
    3. MASUJIMA Yuki, 2015. "Assessing Asian Equilibrium Exchange Rates as Policy Instruments," Discussion papers 15038, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    4. Joseph E. Gagnon, 2014. "Alternatives to Currency Manipulation: What Switzerland, Singapore, and Hong Kong Can Do," Policy Briefs PB14-17, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    5. Luo, Ji & Williams, Gary W., 2015. "The Impacts of Chinese Exchange Rate Policy on World Soybean and Products Markets," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205075, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Juan Carlos Martinez Oliva, 2014. "Moving Towards Monetary Integration in East Asia: Achieving Economic Convergence in a Game-Theory Framework," China Economic Policy Review (CEPR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(02), pages 1-24.
    7. Jose De Gregorio, 2015. "From Rapid Recovery to Slowdown: Why Recent Economic Growth in Latin America Has Been Slow," Policy Briefs PB15-6, Peterson Institute for International Economics.

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