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Fire sales forensics: measuring endogenous risk

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  • Rama Cont

    (Laboratoire de Probabilités et Modèles Aléatoires CNRS)

  • Lakshithe Wagalath

    () (IESEG School of Management)

Abstract

We propose a tractable framework for quantifying the impact of fire sales on the volatility and correlations of asset returns in a multi-asset setting. Our results enable to quantify the impact of fire sales on the covariance structure of asset returns and provide a quantitative explanation for spikes in volatility and correlations observed during liquidation of large portfolios. These results allow to test for the presence of fire sales during a given period of time and to estimate the impact and magnitude of fire sales from observation of market prices: we give conditions for the identifiability of model parameters from time series of asset prices, propose an estimator for the magnitude of fire sales in each asset class and study the consistency and large sample properties of the estimator. We illustrate our estimation methodology with two empirical examples: the hedge fund losses of August 2007 and the Great Deleveraging following the default of Lehman Brothers in Fall 2008.

Suggested Citation

  • Rama Cont & Lakshithe Wagalath, 2013. "Fire sales forensics: measuring endogenous risk," Working Papers 2013-FIN-01, IESEG School of Management.
  • Handle: RePEc:ies:wpaper:f201301
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Rama Cont & Lakshithe Wagalath, 2016. "Institutional Investors And The Dependence Structure Of Asset Returns," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(02), pages 1-37, March.
    2. repec:wsi:ijtafx:v:20:y:2017:i:01:n:s0219024917500017 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Zachary Feinstein, 2017. "Obligations with Physical Delivery in a Multi-Layered Financial Network," Papers 1702.07936, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2017.
    4. Peter C. B. Phillips, 2017. "Detecting Financial Collapse and Ballooning Sovereign Risk," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 3010, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    5. Rama Cont & Lakshithe Wagalath, 2014. "Institutional Investors and the Dependence Structure of Asset Returns," Working Papers 2014-ACF-01, IESEG School of Management.
    6. Brunetti, Celso & Harris, Jeffrey H. & Mankad, Shawn & Michailidis, George, 2015. "Interconnectedness in the Interbank Market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-90, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Zachary Feinstein & Fatena El-Masri, 2015. "The Effects of Leverage Requirements and Fire Sales on Financial Contagion via Asset Liquidation Strategies in Financial Networks," Papers 1507.01847, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2016.
    8. Sadamori Kojaku & Giulio Cimini & Guido Caldarelli & Naoki Masuda, 2018. "Structural changes in the interbank market across the financial crisis from multiple core-periphery analysis," Papers 1802.05139, arXiv.org.
    9. Lillo, Fabrizio & Pirino, Davide, 2015. "The impact of systemic and illiquidity risk on financing with risky collateral," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 180-202.
    10. Sebastian Poledna & Seraf'in Mart'inez-Jaramillo & Fabio Caccioli & Stefan Thurner, 2018. "Quantification of systemic risk from overlapping portfolios in the financial system," Papers 1802.00311, arXiv.org.
    11. Lakshithe Wagalath, 2013. "Modeling the rebalancing slippage of Leveraged Exchange-Traded Funds," Working Papers 2013-FIN-02, IESEG School of Management.
    12. da Gama Batista, João & Massaro, Domenico & Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe & Challet, Damien & Hommes, Cars, 2017. "Do investors trade too much? A laboratory experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 18-34.
    13. Mika J. Straka & Guido Caldarelli & Tiziano Squartini & Fabio Saracco, 2017. "From Ecology to Finance (and Back?): Recent Advancements in the Analysis of Bipartite Networks," Papers 1710.10143, arXiv.org.
    14. Zachary Feinstein, 2015. "Financial Contagion and Asset Liquidation Strategies," Papers 1506.00937, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2016.
    15. Domenico Di Gangi & Fabrizio Lillo & Davide Pirino, 2015. "Assessing systemic risk due to fire sales spillover through maximum entropy network reconstruction," Papers 1509.00607, arXiv.org.
    16. Ben Hambly & Andreas Sojmark, 2018. "An SPDE Model for Systemic Risk with Endogenous Contagion," Papers 1801.10088, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2018.

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