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Temor y falla de mercados: Desequilibrios mundiales y “aseguramiento propio

  • Marcus Miller
  • Lei Zhang

Este trabajo propone un marco integrado para analizar conjuntamente dos aspectos claves: el surgimiento de desequilibrios mundiales y la motivación preventiva de la acumulación de reservas. Los modelos estándar de equilibrio general pueden anticipar superávits reducidos de la cuenta corriente en mercados emergentes si éstos encaran un mayor nivel de riesgo que EE. UU. Pero con una pronunciada aversión a las pérdidas en los mercados emergentes, los ahorros motivados por la precaución pueden generar “desequilibrios mundiales” considerables, especialmente si no hay suficiente capacidad mundial de “aseguramiento”. En principio, tasas de interés real más bajas permiten asegurar que la demanda agregada iguale la oferta a nivel mundial. Aunque la abundancia excesiva de ahorros preventivos parece ser de naturaleza temporal, una corrección provocada por una “parada repentina” de los movimientos de capitales hacia EE. UU. podría conducir a un “aterrizaje accidentado”.

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Paper provided by Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department in its series Research Department Publications with number 4499.

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Date of creation: Dec 2007
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Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:4499
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  1. Morten Ravn & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé & Mart�n Uribe, 2006. "Deep Habits," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(1), pages 195-218.
  2. Caballero, Ricardo J & Farhi, Emmanuel & Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier, 2006. "An Equilibrium Model of "Global Imbalances" and Low Interest Rates," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt7xc0g8mm, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
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  5. V.V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2000. "Can Sticky Price Models Generate Volatile and Persistent Real Exchange Rates?," NBER Working Papers 7869, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  8. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Rey, Hélène, 2005. "From World Banker to World Venture Capitalist: US External Adjustment and The Exorbitant Privilege," CEPR Discussion Papers 5220, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Jody Overland & Christopher D. Carroll & David N. Weil, 2000. "Saving and Growth with Habit Formation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 341-355, June.
  10. Michael Dooley & Peter Garber, 2005. "The cosmic risk: an essay on global imbalances and treasuries," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Feb.
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