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Optimal Exchange Rate Policy and Business Cycles

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  • Cunha, Alexandre B.

Abstract

Implementation and collapse of exchange rate pegging schemes are recurrent events. A currency crisis (pegging) is often followed by an economic downturn (boom). In this essay I study why a benevolent Central Bank should pursue a monetary policy that leads to those recurrent currency crises and subsequent periods of pegging. I show that the optimal policy induces a competitive equilibrium that displays a boom in periods of below average devaluation and a recession in periods of above average devaluation. Therefore, a currency crisis (pegging) can be understood as an optimal policy answer to a recession (boom).
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  • Cunha, Alexandre B., 2002. "Optimal Exchange Rate Policy and Business Cycles," Insper Working Papers wpe_19, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    • Handle: RePEc:ibm:ibmecp:wpe_19
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    1. Cunha, Alexandre & Araújo, Eurilton, 2014. "Simple Macroeconomic Policies and Welfare: A Quantitative Assessment," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 68(3), September.
    2. Sergio Rebelo, 1997. "What Happens When Countries Peg Their Exchange Rates? (The Real Side of Monetary Reforms)," NBER Working Papers 6168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Enrique G. Mendoza & Martin Uribe, 1996. "The syndrome of exchange-rate-based stabilizations and the uncertain duration of currency pegs," International Finance Discussion Papers 548, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Gian Maria Milesi Ferretti & Assaf Razin, 2000. "Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises: Empirical Regularities," NBER Chapters,in: Currency Crises, pages 285-323 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Alexandre Cunha, 2013. "On the relevance of floating exchange rate policies," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 53(2), pages 357-382, June.
    6. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1993. "Sustainable Plans and Mutual Default," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(1), pages 175-195.
    7. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    8. Alexandre Cunha, 2008. "The optimality of the Friedman rule when some distorting taxes are exogenous," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 35(2), pages 267-291, May.
    9. Kiguel, Miguel A & Liviatan, Nissan, 1992. "The Business Cycle Associated.with Exchange Rate-Based Stabilizations," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 6(2), pages 279-305, May.
    10. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-325, August.
    11. Klein, Michael W. & Marion, Nancy P., 1997. "Explaining the duration of exchange-rate pegs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 387-404, December.
    12. Sergio Rebelo & Carlos A. Vegh, 1995. "Real Effects of Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization: An Analysis of Competing Theories," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1995, Volume 10, pages 125-188 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Nicolini, Juan Pablo, 1998. "More on the time consistency of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 333-350, April.
    14. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(3), pages 624-660, June.
    15. Lucas, Robert Jr. & Stokey, Nancy L., 1983. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 55-93.
    16. Chari, V V & Kehoe, Patrick J, 1990. "Sustainable Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 783-802, August.
    17. Correia, Isabel & Neves, Joao C. & Rebelo, Sergio, 1995. "Business cycles in a small open economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 1089-1113, June.
    18. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
    19. repec:fgv:epgrbe:v:68:n:3:a:1 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2002. "Anticipated Ramsey Reforms and the Uniform Taxation Principle: The Role of International Financial Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 3438, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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