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Optimal Exchange Rate Policy and Business Cycles

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Abstract

Implementation and collapse of exchange rate pegging schemes are recurrent events. A currency crisis (pegging) is often followed by an economic downturn (boom). In this essay I study why a benevolent Central Bank should pursue a monetary policy that leads to those recurrent currency crises and subsequent periods of pegging. I show that the optimal policy induces a competitive equilibrium that displays a boom in periods of below average devaluation and a recession in periods of above average devaluation. Therefore, a currency crisis (pegging) can be understood as an optimal policy answer to a recession (boom).

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  • Cunha, Alexandre, 2013. "Optimal Exchange Rate Policy and Business Cycles," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 33(1), September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sbe:breart:v:33:y:2013:i:1:a:14877
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    1. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2002. "Anticipated Ramsey Reforms and the Uniform Taxation Principle: the Role of International Financial Markets," Departmental Working Papers 200210, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.

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