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Challenges in Modeling the Effects of Trade Agreements on the Agricultural Sector

Major issues and challenges encountered in modeling and analyzing agricultural and trade policy reforms are reviewed. We focus on the modeling approach and pay special attention to the type and scope of the models, the calibration of a realistic baseline scenario, the representation of the reform agreement, the use of extra-model information, the choice of metrics to measure reform impacts, and emerging issues in policy modeling. Existing solutions and unresolved issues are examined. We stress the complementarity of various modeling approaches in assessing policy reforms and the importance of helping users understand the limitations of the chosen approach.

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Paper provided by Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at Iowa State University in its series Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) Publications with number 04-wp358.

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Date of creation: Apr 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ias:fpaper:04-wp358
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  1. Richard E. Just, 2001. "Addressing the Changing Nature of Uncertainty in Agriculture," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1131-1153.
  2. Beghin, John C. & Bureau, Jean-Christophe, 2005. "Quantitative Policy Analysis of Sanitary, Phytosanitary and Technical Barriers to Trade," Staff General Research Papers 12740, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  3. Hart, Chad E. & Babcock, Bruce A., 2002. "U.S. Farm Policy and the WTO: How Do They Match Up?," Estey Centre Journal of International Law and Trade Policy, Estey Centre for Law and Economics in International Trade, vol. 3(1).
  4. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, April.
  5. Michael D. Helmar & William H. Meyers & Dermot J. Hayes, 1993. "GATT and CAP Reform: Different, Similar, or Redundant?," Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) Publications 93-gatt4, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at Iowa State University.
  6. Meilke, Karl D. & McClatchy, Don & Gorter, Harry de, 1996. "Challenges in quantitative economic analysis in support of multilateral trade negotiations," Agricultural Economics of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 14(3), August.
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