Missing Links in Multiple Trade Networks
In this paper we develop a network model of international trade which is able to replicate the concentrated and sparse nature of trade data. Our model extends the preferential attachment (PA) growth model to the case of multiple networks. Countries trade a variety of goods of different complexity. Every country progressively evolves from trading less sophisticated to high-tech goods. The probability to capture more trade opportunities at a given level of complexity and to start trading more complex goods are both proportional to the number of existing trade links. We provide a set of theoretical predictions and simulative results. A calibration exercise shows that our model replicates the same concentration level of world trade as well as the sparsity pattern of the trade matrix. Moreover, we find a lower bound for the share of genuine missing trade links. We also discuss a set of numerical solutions to deal with large multiple networks.
|Date of creation:||Sep 2013|
|Date of revision:||Sep 2013|
|Publication status:||Published in EIC working paper series|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Piazza S. Ponziano, 6, 55100 Lucca|
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Web page: http://eprints.imtlucca.it/
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- Roc Armenter & Mikl?s Koren, 2014.
"A Balls-and-Bins Model of Trade,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 104(7), pages 2127-2151, July.
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- Roc Armenter & Miklós Koren, 2008. "A Balls-and-Bins Model of Trade," CeFiG Working Papers 3, Center for Firms in the Global Economy, revised 01 May 2008.
- Armenter, Roc & Koren, Miklós, 2010. "A Balls-and-Bins Model of Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 7783, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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- Giorgio Fagiolo & Javier Reyes & Stefano Schiavo, 2008. "The World-Trade Web: Topological Properties, Dynamics, and Evolution," LEM Papers Series 2008/16, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
- Giorgio Fagiolo & Javier Reyes & Stefano Schiavo, 2008. "The World-Trade Web: Topological Properties, Dynamics, and Evolution," Working Papers hal-01066180, HAL.
- Giorgio Fagiolo & Javier Reyes & Stefano Schiavo, 2008. "The World-Trade Web: Topological Properties, Dynamics, and Evolution," Sciences Po publications 2008/16, Sciences Po.
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