IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hum/wpaper/sfb649dp2016-026.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

VAT multipliers and pass-through dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Simon Voigts

Abstract

To quantify fiscal multipliers in Eurozone countries, ECB, European Commission and IMF draw heavily on large-scale DSGE models. In these models, the value added tax (VAT) is implemented as consumption tax, implying essentially full contemporaneous pass-through of changes in the tax liability to consumers. However, empirical evidence suggests that VAT pass-through in Europe occurs only gradually. To investigate how realistic pass-through dynamics affect VAT multipliers, a DSGE model is augmented by a retail sector, which allows to replicate empirical pass- through estimates. The resulting short-run multipliers are dramatically smaller than those from a consumption tax, suggesting systematic over- estimation in institutional research.

Suggested Citation

  • Simon Voigts, 2016. "VAT multipliers and pass-through dynamics," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2016-026, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2016-026
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://sfb649.wiwi.hu-berlin.de/papers/pdf/SFB649DP2016-026.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dora Benedek & Ruud A. de Mooij & Michael Keen & Philippe Wingender, 2015. "Estimating VAT Pass Through," CESifo Working Paper Series 5531, CESifo Group Munich.
    2. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October.
    3. Shafik Hebous, 2011. "The Effects Of Discretionary Fiscal Policy On Macroeconomic Aggregates: A Reappraisal," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 674-707, September.
    4. Anna Lipinska & Leopold von Thadden, 2012. "On the (in)effectiveness of fiscal devaluations in a monetary union," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-71, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US).
    5. Warne, Anders & Coenen, Günter & Christoffel, Kai, 2008. "The new area-wide model of the euro area: a micro-founded open-economy model for forecasting and policy analysis," Working Paper Series 944, European Central Bank.
    6. Derek Anderson & Benjamin L Hunt & Stephen Snudden, 2013. "Fiscal Consolidation in the Euro Area; How Much Can Structural Reforms Ease the Pain?," IMF Working Papers 13/211, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Jordi Galí & J. David López-Salido, 2003. "Rule-of-Thumb Consumers and the Design of Interest Rate Rules," Working Papers 104, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
    8. V. V Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2002. "Can Sticky Price Models Generate Volatile and Persistent Real Exchange Rates?," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 533-563.
    9. Gomes, S. & Jacquinot, P. & Pisani, M., 2012. "The EAGLE. A model for policy analysis of macroeconomic interdependence in the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1686-1714.
    10. M. Druant & S. Fabiani & Gabor Kezdi & Ana Lamo & R. Sabbatini & Fernando Martins, 2009. "How are Firms’ Wages and Prices Linked: Survey Evidence in Europe," Working Papers w200918, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    11. Coenen, Günter & Mohr, Matthias & Straub, Roland, 2008. "Fiscal consolidation in the euro area: Long-run benefits and short-run costs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 912-932, September.
    12. Poterba, James M., 1996. "Retail Price Reactions to Changes in State and Local Sales Taxes," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 49(2), pages 165-176, June.
    13. Eric M. Leeper & Nora Traum & Todd B. Walker, 2015. "Clearing Up the Fiscal Multiplier Morass: Prior and Posterior Analysis," NBER Working Papers 21433, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Carbonnier, Clement, 2007. "Who pays sales taxes? Evidence from French VAT reforms, 1987-1999," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(5-6), pages 1219-1229, June.
    15. Rob Pike & Mark Lewis & Daniel Turner, 2009. "Impact of VAT reduction on the consumer price indices," Economic & Labour Market Review, Palgrave Macmillan;Office for National Statistics, vol. 3(8), pages 17-21, August.
    16. Valerie A. Ramey, 2011. "Can Government Purchases Stimulate the Economy?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 673-685, September.
    17. Erceg, Christopher J. & Henderson, Dale W. & Levin, Andrew T., 2000. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-313, October.
    18. Kosonen, Tuomas, 2013. "More haircut after VAT cut? On the efficiency of service sector consumption taxes," Working Papers 49, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    19. Antonio Fatás & Ilian Mihov, 2009. "Why Fiscal Stimulus is Likely to Work," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(1), pages 57-73, May.
    20. Ricardo Batista Politi & Enlinson Mattos, 2011. "Ad-valorem tax incidence and after-tax price adjustments: evidence from Brazilian basic basket food," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 44(4), pages 1438-1470, November.
    21. Ratto, Marco & Roeger, Werner & Veld, Jan in 't, 2009. "QUEST III: An estimated open-economy DSGE model of the euro area with fiscal and monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 222-233, January.
    22. Gabriele Giudice & Alessandro Turrini & Jan in 't Veld, 2003. "Can fiscal consolidations be expansionary in the EU? Ex-post evidence and ex-ante analysis," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 195, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    23. Werner Roeger & Jan in 't Veld, 2010. "Fiscal stimulus and exit strategies in the EU: a model-based analysis," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 426, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    24. Derek Anderson & Benjamin L Hunt & Mika Kortelainen & Michael Kumhof & Douglas Laxton & Dirk V Muir & Susanna Mursula & Stephen Snudden, 2013. "Getting to Know GIMF; The Simulation Properties of the Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model," IMF Working Papers 13/55, International Monetary Fund.
    25. Poterba, James M., 1996. "Retail Price Reactions to Changes in State and Local Sales Taxes," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 49(2), pages 165-76, June.
    26. Evers, Michael P., 2012. "Federal fiscal transfer rules in monetary unions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 507-525.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal multipliers; value added tax; tax pass-through; DSGE models.;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2016-026. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (RDC-Team). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/sohubde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.