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On the Continuation of the Great Moderation:New evidence from G7 Countries

  • Wenjuan Chen
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    This paper employs a Markov regime-switching approach to investigate whether the Great Moderation is over since the start of the late 2000s recession. The results con rm that the recent nancial crisis did cause a simultaneous high-volatility period among the G7 countries. However, the nancial crisis may not mark the end of the Great Moderation. There is strong evidence that each G7 country has again returned to the low-variance state since 2009 or the beginning of 2010.

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    File URL: http://sfb649.wiwi.hu-berlin.de/papers/pdf/SFB649DP2011-060.pdf
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    Paper provided by Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany in its series SFB 649 Discussion Papers with number SFB649DP2011-060.

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    Length: 24 pages
    Date of creation: Sep 2011
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2011-060
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    Web page: http://sfb649.wiwi.hu-berlin.de
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    1. Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez Quiros, 1998. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?," Staff Reports 41, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    2. Smith Penelope & Summers Peter M, 2009. "Regime Switches in GDP Growth and Volatility: Some International Evidence and Implications for Modeling Business Cycles," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-19, September.
    3. Olivier Blanchard & John Simon, 2001. "The Long and Large Decline in U.S. Output Volatility," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 135-174.
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