IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hit/cisdps/614.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Heterogeneity and Biases in Inflation Expectations of Japanese Households

Author

Listed:
  • Ueno, Yuko
  • Namba, Ryoichi

Abstract

This study examines the formation of the inflation expectations of Japanese households using a micro-level dataset of forecast errors of expected inflation rates. The Japanese have recently come to be interested in policies that intend to positively influence the inflation expectations of households and firms. The effectiveness of these policies depends on the mechanism of expectation formation. Thus, whether expectations are formed adaptively or rationally, or whether expectations are homogeneous or heterogeneous, are important factors influencing policy effectiveness. In this study, we carefully examine the formation of inflation expectations of Japanese households by using a micro-level dataset of the “Consumer Confidence Survey” of the Japanese government. We observe that inflation expectations are stably biased upwards and are distributed in a dispersed way. We find that the “asymmetric loss function model,” in which households incur asymmetric loss from either over estimation or underestimation of the future inflation rate, can explain the observed bias to a certain extent. Further, the relationships between expectations and age show a stable asymmetric inverted-U shape notwithstanding the survey period. The a symmetric loss function can also explain this shape, indicating that mid-aged consumers tend to show strong asymmetries in error aversion.

Suggested Citation

  • Ueno, Yuko & Namba, Ryoichi, 2014. "Heterogeneity and Biases in Inflation Expectations of Japanese Households," CIS Discussion paper series 614, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  • Handle: RePEc:hit:cisdps:614
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hermes-ir.lib.hit-u.ac.jp/hermes/ir/re/26101/dp614.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Creedy, John, 2000. "Measuring Welfare Changes and the Excess Burden of Taxation," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(1), pages 1-47, January.
    2. Hall, Robert E, 1988. "Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 339-357, April.
    3. Martin Beznoska & Richard Ochmann, 2013. "The interest elasticity of household savings: a structural approach with German micro data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 371-399, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yoshiyuki Nakazono, 2016. "Inflation expectations and monetary policy under disagreements," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 16-E-1, Bank of Japan.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bansal, Ravi & Kiku, Dana & Yaron, Amir, 2016. "Risks for the long run: Estimation with time aggregation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 52-69.
    2. Smoluk, H. J. & Neveu, Raymond P., 2002. "Consumption and asset prices: An analysis across income groups," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 47-62.
    3. Chatelain, Jean-Bernard & Ralf, Kirsten, 2020. "Hopf Bifurcation from New-Keynesian Taylor Rule to Ramsey Optimal Policy," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    4. Bente Halvorsen, 2009. "Conflicting Interests in Environmental Policy-making?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 44(2), pages 287-305, October.
    5. Kapteyn, Arie & Kleinjans, Kristin J. & van Soest, Arthur, 2009. "Intertemporal consumption with directly measured welfare functions and subjective expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 425-437, October.
    6. Ravi Bansal, 2007. "Long-run risks and financial markets," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 89(Jul), pages 283-300.
    7. Kris Jacobs, 2001. "Estimating Nonseparable Preference Specifications for Asset Market Participants," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-12, CIRANO.
    8. Y. Hossein Farzin & Ronald Wendner, 2013. "Saving Rate Dynamics in the Neoclassical Growth Model — Hyperbolic Discounting and Observational Equivalence," Graz Economics Papers 2013-05, University of Graz, Department of Economics.
    9. Beeler, Jason & Campbell, John Y., 2012. "The Long-Run Risks Model and Aggregate Asset Prices: An Empirical Assessment," Critical Finance Review, now publishers, vol. 1(1), pages 141-182, January.
    10. Masakatsu Okubo, 2011. "The Intertemporal Elasticity of Substitution: An Analysis Based on Japanese Data," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 78(310), pages 367-390, April.
    11. Hasler, Michael & Marfè, Roberto, 2016. "Disaster recovery and the term structure of dividend strips," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 116-134.
    12. Evren Ceritoglu, 2017. "The effect of house price changes on cohort consumption in Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 17(3), pages 1-99–110.
    13. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Antonio Moreno & Seonghoon Cho, 2012. "The Deaton paradox in a long memory context with structural breaks," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(25), pages 3309-3322, September.
    14. Berger, Johannes & Strohner, Ludwig, 2020. "Documentation of the PUblic Policy Model for Austria and other European countries (PUMA)," Research Papers 11, EcoAustria – Institute for Economic Research.
    15. Yulei Luo & William T. Smith & Heng-fu Zou, 2009. "The Spirit of Capitalism and Excess Smoothness," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 10(2), pages 281-301, November.
    16. Berg Lennart & Bergström Reinhold, 1996. "Consumer Confidence and Consumption in Sweden," Working Paper Series 1996:7, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    17. repec:fip:fedhep:y:2013:i:qi:p:14-29:n:vol.37no.1 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Chen Lian & Yueran Ma & Carmen Wang, 2019. "Low Interest Rates and Risk-Taking: Evidence from Individual Investment Decisions," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(6), pages 2107-2148.
    19. Y. Hossein Farzin & Ronald Wendner, 2014. "The Time Path of the Saving Rate: Hyperbolic Discounting and Short-Term Planning," Graz Economics Papers 2014-04, University of Graz, Department of Economics.
    20. Adrien Auclert, 2019. "Monetary Policy and the Redistribution Channel," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(6), pages 2333-2367, June.
    21. Papageorgiou Chris & Pérez-Sebastián Fidel, 2005. "Matching Up the Data on Education with Economic Growth Models," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-22, April.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hit:cisdps:614. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cihitjp.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Digital Resources Section, Hitotsubashi University Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cihitjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.