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Climate Change and Carbon Tax Expectations

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  • Hoel, Michael

    () (Dept. of Economics, University of Oslo)

Abstract

If investors fear that future carbon taxes will be lower than currently announced by policy makers, long-run investments in greenhouse gas mitigation may be smaller than desirable. On the other hand, owners of a non-renewable carbon resource that underestimate future carbon taxes will postpone extraction compared with what they would have chosen had the policymakers been able to commit to the optimal tax path. If extraction costs rise rapidly as accumulated extraction rises, near-term emissions increase as a consequence of a downward bias in the expected future carbon taxes. Whether investments in greenhouse gas mitigation go up or down due to the expectation error depends on the time pro…le of the returns to the investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Hoel, Michael, 2010. "Climate Change and Carbon Tax Expectations," Memorandum 04/2010, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:osloec:2010_004
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    File URL: https://www.sv.uio.no/econ/english/research/unpublished-works/working-papers/pdf-files/2010/Memo-04-2010.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Quentin Grafton, R. & Kompas, Tom & Van Long, Ngo, 2012. "Substitution between biofuels and fossil fuels: Is there a green paradox?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 328-341.
    2. Stefano Bosi & David Desmarchelier, 2016. "Natural cycles and pollution," Working Papers of BETA 2016-53, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    3. Nachtigall, Daniel & Rübbelke, Dirk, 2016. "The green paradox and learning-by-doing in the renewable energy sector," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 74-92.
    4. Jus Darko & Meier Volker, 2015. "Announcing is Bad, Delaying is Worse: Another Pitfall in Well-intended Climate Policy," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 235(3), pages 286-297, June.
    5. Svenn Jensens & Kristina Mohlin & Karen Pittel & Thomas Sterner, 2015. "An Introduction to the Green Paradox: The Unintended Consequences of Climate Policies," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 9(2), pages 246-265.
    6. Edwin van der Werf & Corrado Di Maria, 2011. "Unintended Detrimental Effects of Environmental Policy: The Green Paradox and Beyond," CESifo Working Paper Series 3466, CESifo Group Munich.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate change; exhaustible resources; carbon tax;

    JEL classification:

    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • Q30 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - General
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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