IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hhs/iuiwop/1420.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

From Epidemic to Pandemic: Did the COVID-19 Outbreak Affect High School Program Choices in Sweden?

Author

Listed:
  • Aalto, Aino-Maija

    (Swedish Institute for Social Research (SOFI), Stockholm University)

  • Müller, Dagmar

    (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN))

  • Tilley, J. Lucas

    (Swedish Institute for Social Research (SOFI), Stockholm University)

Abstract

We study whether the onset of the COVID-19 crisis affected the program choices of high school applicants in Sweden. Our analysis exploits the fact that the admission process consists of two stages: a preliminary round in which applicants rank programs in order of preference and a final round in which they have full flexibility to alter their preliminary rankings. In 2020, the timing of the two rounds happened to provide a unique pre- and postcrisis snapshot of applicants’ preferences for various fields of study. Using school-level data on applicants’ top-ranked programs for all admission rounds between 2016 and 2020, we implement a difference-in-differences method to identify the immediate effect of the crisis on program preferences. We find no change in preferences for academic programs, but a decline in top-ranked applications to some of the vocational programs. The declines are most pronounced and robust for several service-oriented programs, in particular those related to hotel and restaurant, which was the most adversely affected industry during the crisis. This finding suggests that labor market considerations influence the study choices made by relatively young students.

Suggested Citation

  • Aalto, Aino-Maija & Müller, Dagmar & Tilley, J. Lucas, 2021. "From Epidemic to Pandemic: Did the COVID-19 Outbreak Affect High School Program Choices in Sweden?," Working Paper Series 1420, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1420
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifn.se/wfiles/wp/wp1420.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Russell Weinstein, 2022. "Local Labor Markets and Human Capital Investments," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 57(5), pages 1498-1525.
    2. Shimeng Liu & Weizeng Sun & John V. Winters, 2019. "Up In Stem, Down In Business: Changing College Major Decisions With The Great Recession," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 37(3), pages 476-491, July.
    3. Han, Luyi & Winters, John V., 2020. "Industry Fluctuations and College Major Choices: Evidence from an Energy Boom and Bust," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    4. Aucejo, Esteban M. & French, Jacob & Ugalde Araya, Maria Paola & Zafar, Basit, 2020. "The impact of COVID-19 on student experiences and expectations: Evidence from a survey," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    5. Julian R. Betts & Laurel L. McFarland, 1995. "Safe Port in a Storm: The Impact of Labor Market Conditions on Community College Enrollments," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 30(4), pages 741-765.
    6. Patricia Rice, 1999. "The impact of local labour markets on investment in further education: Evidence from the England and Wales youth cohort studies," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 12(2), pages 287-312.
    7. David Card & Thomas Lemieux, 2001. "Dropout and Enrollment Trends in the Postwar Period: What Went Wrong in the 1970s?," NBER Chapters, in: Risky Behavior among Youths: An Economic Analysis, pages 439-482, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Erica Blom & Brian C. Cadena & Benjamin J. Keys, 2021. "Investment over the Business Cycle: Insights from College Major Choice," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(4), pages 1043-1082.
    9. Damon Clark, 2011. "Do Recessions Keep Students in School? The Impact of Youth Unemployment on Enrolment in Post‐compulsory Education in England," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 78(311), pages 523-545, July.
    10. Riley K. Acton, 2021. "Community College Program Choices in the Wake of Local Job Losses," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(4), pages 1129-1154.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aalto, Aino-Maija & Müller, Dagmar & Tilley, J. Lucas, 2023. "From epidemic to pandemic: Effects of the COVID-19 outbreak on high school program choices in Sweden," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    2. Etienne Dagorn & Elena Claudia Meroni & Léonard Moulin, 2025. "Shifting Preferences: COVID-19 and Higher Education Application," Working Papers 303, French Institute for Demographic Studies.
    3. Minaya, Veronica & Moore, Brendan & Scott-Clayton, Judith, 2023. "The effect of job displacement on public college enrollment: Evidence from Ohio," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    4. By Marianne Haraldsvik & Bjarne Strøm, 2022. "Adult skills and labor market conditions during teenage years: cross-country evidence from international surveys [Is post-secondary education a safe port and for whom? Evidence from Canadian data]," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(3), pages 894-919.
    5. David, Sandberg, 2024. "The Effect of Military Base Closures on Young Adults," Working Papers 2024:9, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    6. Alena Bicakova & Guido Matias Cortes & Kelly Foley & Jacopo Mazza & Peter McHenry, 2025. "Unpacking the Countercyclicality of Post-Secondary Enrollment in the United States," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp795, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    7. Clémentine Garrouste & Mathilde Godard, 2016. "The lasting health impact of leaving school in a bad economy : Britons in the 1970s recession," Post-Print hal-01408637, HAL.
    8. Alena Bičáková & Guido Matias Cortes & Jacopo Mazza, 2021. "Caught in the Cycle: Economic Conditions at Enrolment and Labour Market Outcomes of College Graduates," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(638), pages 2383-2412.
    9. Hartung, Andreas & Wessling, Katarina & Hillmert, Steffen, 2019. "Educational and occupational aspirations at the end of secondary school: The importance of regional labour-market conditions," Research Memorandum 019, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    10. Bičáková, Alena & Cortes, Guido Matias & Mazza, Jacopo, 2023. "Make your own luck: The wage gains from starting college in a bad economy," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    11. Sara Ayllón & Natalia Nollenberger, 2021. "The Unequal Opportunity For Skills Acquisition During The Great Recession In Europe," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 67(2), pages 289-316, June.
    12. Meschi, Elena & Swaffield, Joanna K. & Vignoles, Anna, 2011. "The Relative Importance of Local Labour Market Conditions and Pupil Attainment on Post-Compulsory Schooling Decisions," IZA Discussion Papers 6143, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Lisa Simon, 2018. "Shocking Choice: Trade Shocks, Local Labor Markets and Vocational Occupation Choices," ifo Working Paper Series 281, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    14. Ahn, Kunwon & Lee, Jun Yeong & Winters, John V., 2020. "Employment Opportunities and High School Completion during the COVID-19 Recession," IZA Discussion Papers 13802, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Han, Luyi & Winters, John V., 2020. "Industry Fluctuations and College Major Choices: Evidence from an Energy Boom and Bust," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    16. Hartung, Andreas & Wessling, Katarina & Hillmert, Steffen, 2019. "Educational and occupational aspirations at the end of secondary school: The importance of regional labour-market conditions," ROA Research Memorandum 004, Maastricht University, Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market (ROA).
    17. Batistich, Mary Kate & Bond, Timothy N. & Linde, Sebastian & Mumford, Kevin J., 2024. "Statistical Discrimination and Optimal Mismatch in College Major Selection," IZA Discussion Papers 17237, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    18. Clementine Garrouste & Mathilde Godard, 2016. "The Lasting Health Impact of Leaving School in a Bad Economy: Britons in the 1970s Recession," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(S2), pages 70-92, November.
    19. Jennifer Graves & Zoë Kuehn, 2022. "Higher education decisions and macroeconomic conditions at age eighteen," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 171-241, May.
    20. Franziska Hampf & Marc Piopiunik & Simon Wiederhold, 2020. "The Effects of Graduating from High School in a Recession: College Investments, Skill Formation, and Labor-Market Outcomes," CESifo Working Paper Series 8252, CESifo.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Business cycle; Human capital investment; Field of study;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I20 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - General
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1420. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Elisabeth Gustafsson (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iuiiise.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.