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Can Stated Preference Methods Accurately Predict Responses to Environmental Policies? The Case of a Plastic Bag Regulation in China

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  • He, Haoran

    () (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University)

Abstract

This study investigates the validity of using stated preference (SP) estimates to predict policy effects on plastic bag consumption. Before implementation of a plastic bag regulation, when bags were still free of charge, we utilized an SP survey to elicit consumers’ contingent bag consumption in certain possible pricing scenarios. Following implementation of the regulation mandating charging for bags, we conducted another survey to collect actual consumption information. We thus have unique data to compare stated and revealed consumption. The comparison results show that consumers’ behavioral reactions to a policy change can be predicted reasonably well with SP techniques.

Suggested Citation

  • He, Haoran, 2010. "Can Stated Preference Methods Accurately Predict Responses to Environmental Policies? The Case of a Plastic Bag Regulation in China," Working Papers in Economics 444, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:gunwpe:0444
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/2077/22327
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. He, Haoran, 2010. "The Effects of an Environmental Policy on Consumers: Lessons from the Chinese Plastic Bag Regulation," Working Papers in Economics 453, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
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    4. Richard T. Carson & Nicholas E. Flores & Kerry M. Martin & Jennifer L. Wright, 1996. "Contingent Valuation and Revealed Preference Methodologies: Comparing the Estimates for Quasi-Public Goods," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 72(1), pages 80-99.
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    7. Jae Bong Chang & Jayson L. Lusk & F. Bailey Norwood, 2007. "How Closely Do Hypothetical Surveys and Laboratory Experiments Predict Field Behavior?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(2), pages 518-534.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; contingent behavior; external validity; plastic bags; revealed behavior; stated preference;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling

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