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The distortion of beliefs in the face of uncertainty

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    Judgements and beliefs often are distorted. They are affected by underlying values and reflect strong tendencies toward wishful thinking. In action, biased thinking may or may not be detrimental, and there is a very delicate balance to keep between the need to motivate oneself for forceful action, and to keep a realistic view of the possibilities of success. People encounter problems, calling for thought and the formation of constructs, only rather rarely, but when they do they tend to be in an unpleasant emotional state. Uncertainty is one such state, in which one encounters difficult problems and expects little success.

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    File URL: http://swoba.hhs.se/hastba/papers/hastba2002_009.pdf
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    Paper provided by Stockholm School of Economics in its series SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Business Administration with number 2002:9.

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    Length: 30 pages
    Date of creation: May 2002
    Date of revision:
    Publication status: Published in International Journal of Management and Decision Making, 2007, pages 1-29.
    Handle: RePEc:hhb:hastba:2002_009
    Contact details of provider: Postal: The Economic Research Institute, Stockholm School of Economics, P.O. Box 6501, SE 113 83 Stockholm, Sweden
    Phone: +46-(0)8-736 90 00
    Fax: +46-(0)8-31 01 57
    Web page: http://www.hhs.se/
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    1. Manove, Michael & Padilla, Atilano Jorge, 1998. "Banking (Conservatively) With Optimists," CEPR Discussion Papers 1918, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Shanteau, James & Stewart, Thomas R., 1992. "Why study expert decision making? Some historical perspectives and comments," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 95-106, November.
    3. Shanteau, James, 1992. "Competence in experts: The role of task characteristics," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 252-266, November.
    4. Baron, Jonathan & Spranca, Mark, 1997. "Protected Values," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 1-16, April.
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