The distortion of beliefs in the face of uncertainty
Judgements and beliefs often are distorted. They are affected by underlying values and reflect strong tendencies toward wishful thinking. In action, biased thinking may or may not be detrimental, and there is a very delicate balance to keep between the need to motivate oneself for forceful action, and to keep a realistic view of the possibilities of success. People encounter problems, calling for thought and the formation of constructs, only rather rarely, but when they do they tend to be in an unpleasant emotional state. Uncertainty is one such state, in which one encounters difficult problems and expects little success.
|Date of creation:||May 2002|
|Publication status:||Published in International Journal of Management and Decision Making, 2007, pages 1-29.|
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- Michael Manove & A. Jorge Padilla, 1999.
"Banking (Conservatively) with Optimists,"
RAND Journal of Economics,
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