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Estimating the number of mean shifts under long memory

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  • Sibbertsen, Philipp
  • Willert, Juliane

Abstract

Detecting the number of breaks in the mean can be challenging when it comes to the long memory framework. Tree-based procedures can be applied to time series when the location and number of mean shifts are unknown and estimate the breaks consistently though with possible overfitting. For pruning the redundant breaks information criteria can be used. An alteration of the BIC, the LWZ, is presented to overcome long-range dependence issues. A Monte Carlo Study shows the superior performance of the LWZ to alternative pruning criteria like the BIC or LIC.

Suggested Citation

  • Sibbertsen, Philipp & Willert, Juliane, 2012. "Estimating the number of mean shifts under long memory," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-496, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    • Handle: RePEc:han:dpaper:dp-496
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    long memory; mean shift; regression tree; ART; LWZ; LIC.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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